Commodities Market Impact Weather

Drier Northwestern Corn Belt May Increase Planting Activity

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A drier stretch in the Northern Plains and showers moving into southern Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR MIDWEST

A system will bring more showers through the Midwest through Friday with heavier rain and some severe weather. That is followed by another system this weekend into next week as the pattern stays active. The seed already in the ground will benefit, along with winter wheat.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Widespread showers fell Monday and continue Tuesday in the Southern Plains. Areas of heavy rain could bring some flooding. Another front and system should bring more showers through northern areas over the weekend and into next week. Wheat is likely too late to be able to use much of the moisture and the showers will only stabilize conditions at this point. But increases in moisture will benefit summer crops and pastures more.

DRIER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

The Pacific Northwest will be drier this week with rising temperatures. But another trough will move through the region Friday into next week with more showers and cooler temperatures again. Showers will benefit wheat, especially where dryness and drought remain concerns, but the cooler temperatures coming up will keep growth slower.

BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYNESS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Drier weather in the Northern Plains throughout the week may be enough to get planters rolling a little faster in North Dakota and the surrounding areas that are too wet. But the window is short as a system moves in this weekend with periods of scattered showers going into next week.

SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE DELTA

Scattered showers are expected in the Delta on Tuesday and Wednesday. A longer break will develop afterward, which may extend into June. Recent showers are benefiting seed in the ground, but some upcoming dryness could cause some stress if it lasts too long.

RAINS RETURN TO SOUTHERN BRAZIL

It remains dry across central Brazil, which continues to negatively affect corn. A cold front will move into southern states later this week and stall out going into next week, bringing widespread showers to benefit pollinating to filling corn. The front is not expected to bring showers to central states.

ARGENTINA WHEAT NEEDS MORE RAINFALL

A cold front will slide through Argentina through Wednesday, bringing some showers to wheat areas, though amounts are likely to be light. Wheat needs more showers for good germination and early growth but will find cold temperatures instead, keeping both slow and uneven.

COOL AND SHOWERY IN BLACK SEA

Colder temperatures were noted in the Black Sea over the weekend, bringing some frosts to northern Russia. Isolated to scattered showers came with the cold though, keeping soils in fairly good shape for winter wheat. The cold will stick around through the week across Russia, but Ukraine will waffle in and out of above and below normal temperatures. Showers will be better across Ukraine later this week into next. But overall, conditions are fairly good across the region for both wheat and corn.

SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Recent dryness in the eastern Canadian Prairies is benefiting soil draining. Some spotty showers may move across the region through Thursday, but another system is likely to bring more widespread moderate showers Friday into next week. Western areas will welcome it, but eastern areas will not. Some frosts may occur behind the system as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick