DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a ridge in the Southeast and a large trough from the Southwest to Hudson Bay. A large portion of the trough will lift northeast into Canada over the weekend, but a part of the trough will be left behind and deepen across the middle of the country early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the trough will push eastward through late next week.

Another trough will move into the West next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be below to well below normal across the Central and near to above normal on the both coasts.

Temperatures will rise next week with colder air moving back into the West next weekend. A disturbance will move from the Plains eastward with a somewhat organized storm system late next week. Another system will move into the northwest quarter of the country next weekend and spill into the Plains as well.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...113 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...17 AT EVARO MT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT THURSDAY...SPARTA WI 2.85 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the Southeast and a large trough from the Southwest to Hudson Bay. A large portion of the trough will lift northeast into Canada over the weekend, but a part of the trough will be left behind and deepen across the middle of the country early next week. It will push eastward then through late next week. Another trough will move into the West next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be below to well below normal across the Central U.S. and near to above normal on the both coasts.

Temperatures will rise next week with colder air moving back into the West next weekend. A disturbance will move from the Plains eastward with a somewhat organized storm system late next week. Another system will move into the northwest quarter of the country next weekend and spill into the Plains as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought widespread light to moderate rainfall across the region on Thursday and continues on Friday with a mix of rain and snow. There could be some accumulations in spots.

Well below normal temperatures will be in place going into next week. Frosts will be possible, but the impact to agriculture will be quite low due to the delayed spring planting. Another couple of disturbances will bring scattered showers through the region next week. Planting progress continues to be slow which looks to be the case for a while as the weather pattern remains active going into June.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A front is moving through the region with areas of showers through the weekend. Colder air moving in is creating snow in the Colorado foothills going into Saturday. A disturbance will bring more widespread showers to the region on Monday and Tuesday, but it is unclear if the showers will be enough for stabilizing damaged wheat.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front will continue to bring scattered showers through Sunday. Areas of severe weather and organized showers will slow down planting progress in places. Colder temperatures will move through behind the system, being coldest across the west going into next week. Another storm system will move through around the middle of next week with more widespread showers and causes for planting delays.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): After a drier stretch this week, a stronger cold front will move through Saturday and Sunday, bringing more organized showers through and also cooler temperatures, which will improve soil moisture and reduce stress in some of the somewhat drier areas across the south. More showers are anticipated next week as another system moves through, maintaining or improving soil moisture.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Another cold trough is moving through the region.

Showers from it are benefiting soil moisture but the cold temperatures are keeping growth slow for wheat. The showers will dry up over the weekend with a drier stretch through much of next week, which may bring some better sunshine and some warmer temperatures for better growth.

BRAZIL (CORN): Soil moisture continues to be critical in central Brazil for safrinha corn in the pollination and grain-fill stages of growth. Cold air may lead to some frosts across the southern areas through Saturday morning. If it does get cold enough, frost would create significant damage to the crop that is pollinating to filling.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Dry weather has promoted harvest of corn and soybeans, along with planting of winter wheat. Wheat has seen lower amounts of moisture lately and could use more for good germination. A front moving north through the country next week may provide some spotty showers, but northern areas of the country are likely to see better shower coverage.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CANOLA): The eastern half of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are too cold and wet for much planting progress to be done. Some recent showers across the western half of the region benefited soil moisture where drought still exists. Cold temperatures moving in behind a storm system will last into next week, continuing to keep soil drainage and subsequent planting slow in eastern areas. The cold will not be good for western areas either, where frosts would be a concern.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Temperatures well above normal in western Europe coincide with drier areas and wheat will feel some stress. The heat will end over the weekend with some showers, which may provide some relief. Over the east, soil moisture and temperatures are much better and crops are overall in better shape. Some better shower chances will occur over the continent next week with a couple of systems moving through. That includes across the northwest dry spots.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Colder temperatures continue in the region through next week. They may be cold enough to produce some patchy frost at times, more likely over Russia. Frosts may have some impact on some advanced wheat, though growth has been slower this spring, which continues with the colder air. Periods of showers will come with the colder air and soil moisture may improve in spots.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Heavy rain moved through the eastern states of Australia last week, causing some flooding in spots which may have had an impact on winter wheat and canola planting and early establishment. But the increased soil moisture for most of the region should be good in the long run.

More wet weather is coming this weekend into next week. Showers do not look to produce widespread flooding.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast Friday, below to well below normal Saturday-Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Periods of isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday.

Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast Friday-Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday.

Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

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