Commodities Market Impact Weather

Risk of Snow for Limited Areas

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More planting delays, colder temperatures and some areas of snow moving into the U.S. and Canadian Prairies, dry conditions and frost risks in Brazil, and a heatwave in western Europe are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CAUSING SOME PLANTING DELAYS FOR MIDWEST

Scattered showers will fall ahead of and along a front through Sunday in the Midwest. Areas of severe weather and organized showers will slow down planting progress in some places. Colder temperatures will move through behind that stronger system, being coldest across the west going into next week. Another storm system will move through around the middle of next week with more widespread showers and causes for planting delays.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Stronger storms and some better-than-expected rain fell across the southwestern Plains areas last night, but still was not enough to give many areas that are suffering drought good amounts. A front will move through with areas of showers through the weekend. Colder air moving in could create snow in the Colorado foothills on Saturday. A disturbance may bring more widespread showers to the region Monday and Tuesday, but it is unclear if the showers will be enough for stabilizing wheat.

LITTLE DRIER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Another cold and wet trough is moving through the Pacific Northwest this week. The showers are benefiting soil moisture, but the cold temperatures are keeping growth slow for wheat. The showers will dry up over the weekend with a drier stretch through much of next week, which may bring some better sunshine and some warmer temperatures for better growth.

STRONG, COLD STORM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

A stronger system will move through the Northern Plains with more widespread and heavier showers Thursday and Friday, potentially being cold enough for accumulating snow in some areas. Well below normal temperatures will then be in place going into next week. Some northern frosts will be possible, but the impact to agriculture will be quite low due to the delayed planting this spring. Another couple of disturbances will bring scattered showers through the region next week. Planting progress continues to be slow, which looks to be the case for a while as the weather pattern remains active going into June.

SHOWERS INCREASING FOR DELTA

After a drier stretch this week, a stronger cold front will move through Saturday and Sunday, bringing more organized showers through, and also cooler temperatures, which will improve soil moisture and reduce stress in some of the drier areas across the south. More showers are anticipated next week as another system moves through, maintaining or improving soil moisture.

FROST POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Soil moisture continues to be critical in central Brazil for safrinha corn in the pollination and grain-fill stages of growth. Cold air may lead to some frosts across the southern areas through Saturday morning. If it does get cold enough, frost would create significant damage to the crop that is pollinating to filling.

ARGENTINA WHEAT NEEDS MORE RAINFALL

Dry weather in Argentina has promoted additional harvest of corn and soybeans, along with planting of winter wheat. Wheat has seen lower amounts of moisture lately and could use more for good germination. A front moving north through the country next week may provide some spotty showers, but northern areas of the country are likely to see better shower coverage while wheat areas will not.

COOL AND SHOWERY IN BLACK SEA

Colder temperatures continue in the Black Sea region through next week. They may be cold enough to produce some patchy frost at times, more likely over Russia. Frosts may have some impact on some advanced wheat, though growth has been slower this spring, which continues with the colder air. Periods of showers will come with the colder air and soil moisture may improve in spots.

HEATWAVE CONTINUING IN WESTERN EUROPE

Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend across western Europe. This coincides with drier areas and wheat will feel some stress. Some periodic showers will move through late this week in the northwest. Over the east, soil moisture and temperatures are much better and crops are overall in much better shape. Some better shower chances will occur over the continent next week with a couple of systems moving through. That includes across the northwest dry spots.

COLD AND WET FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The eastern half of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are too cold and wet for much planting progress. Some recent showers across the western half of the region benefited soil moisture where drought still exists. A storm system moving through the region Thursday and Friday will bring more showers and could be cold enough to produce areas of accumulating snow. The colder air will last into next week, continuing to keep soil drainage and subsequent planting slow in eastern areas. The cold will not be good for western areas either, where frosts would be a concern.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick