DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...112 AT OCOTILLO WELLS CA

LOW SUN...21 AT ANGEL FIRE NM

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT SUNDAY...JACKSONVILLE FL 2.58 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the Great Lakes and Southeast, a ridge across the West, and a trough developing in the northeast Pacific. The ridge will spread east this week across the south, while a disturbance moves across the north. The main trough will move into the West mid- to late-week, spreading into the middle of the country over the weekend, where it will continue next week.

The U.S. and European models have some key differences in the pattern for next week. The GFS is deeper with the central trough next week and keeps it around longer. I will use a blend, but favor the European, which is not as cold.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be below to well below normal across the West and Central and above normal on the East Coast. The cold will deepen across the middle of the country over the weekend, but temperatures will rise next week. A system will move through the East over the weekend with scattered showers. A couple of disturbances could follow across the Corn Belt going into next week with additional showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some showers went through over the weekend, but most areas remained dry. A disturbance will move through the region with isolated to scattered showers early in the week, but a stronger system will move through with more widespread and heavier showers Thursday and Friday, potentially being cold enough for accumulating snow in some areas. Well below normal temperatures will then be in place going into next week. Some northern frosts will be possible, but the impact to agriculture will be quite low due to the delayed planting. Planting progress continues to be slow which looks to be the case for a while yet.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Isolated to scattered showers moved through some areas of the region over the weekend.

Showers will happen but only on occasion through the region this week. The driest areas in the southwest will have the least chance for showers, and also with fairly hot temperatures until the weekend. Stress continues to be high for wheat and for corn and soybeans where the showers miss this week.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers and some severe weather went through over the weekend. After a quiet day on Monday, the rest of the week will be more active, with showers and thunderstorms scattered about the region midweek and a stronger storm system moving through at the end of the week. That last one has the best chance to produce severe weather and organized showers. The rapid planting pace of last week will slow down due to weather this week. Colder temperatures will move through Friday through the weekend, being coldest across the west going into next week. Some northern frosts will be possible, though the impact to agriculture will be very low due to the late plantings.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Scattered showers went through over the weekend, slowing the planting pace a bit, though progress is near average in the region.

Some showers may go through at times during the week, but overall, the region will be in a drier stretch. A stronger cold front will move through Friday and Saturday, bringing more organized showers through and also cooler temperatures, which will improve soil moisture and reduce stress in some of the somewhat drier areas across the south.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): A cold trough brought more showers and colder temperatures to the region over the weekend before it left. A ridge there now is only temporary as another cold and wet trough will move through this week.

The showers are benefiting soil moisture but the cold temperatures are keeping growth for wheat very slow.

BRAZIL (CORN): A system went through over the weekend with widespread showers across the south. The cold front to the system is bringing isolated showers to central areas Sunday and Monday, but soil moisture continues to be critical for safrinha corn in the pollination and grain-fill stages of growth. Cold air that is moving in behind the front may lead to some frosts across the southern areas throughout the week, but clouds and some rainfall could keep temperatures up just enough. If it does get cold enough, it would create significant damage to the crop that is pollinating to filling.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Some spotty showers moved through on Friday and Saturday, but much of the country remained dry. That promoted additional harvest of corn and soybeans, along with planting of winter wheat. Wheat has seen lower amounts of moisture lately and could use more for good germination.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CANOLA): Heavy precipitation fell over eastern areas, continuing to keep the eastern half of Saskatchewan and Manitoba too cold and wet for much planting progress to be done. Some showers across the western half of the region benefited soil moisture where drought still exists.

A disturbance early this week will bring some isolated showers through the region, but a stronger system later this week will produce more widespread heavy precipitation. That will again be beneficial for western areas while the east will remain too wet. With cold temperatures following the system, that could also lead to some snow accumulation at least in Manitoba. The colder air will last into next week, continuing to keep soil drainage and subsequent planting slow in eastern areas. The cold will not be good for western areas either, where frosts would be a concern.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Some isolated showers moved through the continent over the weekend, but mostly missed the drier areas over the north and west.

Temperatures rose well above normal over the western half of the continent, which will be the case all week long and continue in Spain through next week.

Drier areas in the west and north will feel additional stress. Some periodic showers will move through late this week in the northwest, but showers will be more consistent over the east, where soil moisture is much better.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Colder temperatures are moving through the region this week. They may be cold enough to produce some patchy frost at times, more likely on Friday or Saturday than any other day. Still, that would not have much of an impact on corn, maybe on some advanced wheat, though growth has been slower this spring. Periods of showers will come with the colder air throughout the week. It is unlikely to increase soil moisture too much but may allow for some minor improvements in spots.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Heavy rain moved through the eastern states of Australia last week, causing some flooding in spots which may have had an impact on winter wheat and canola planting and early establishment. But the increased soil moisture for most of the region should be good in the long run.

Drier conditions are expected for most of the week, allowing for saturated soils to drain and more planting to continue.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Friday.

East: Scattered showers leaving east Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Periods of isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to below normal south and above normal north Monday, below to well below normal south and near to above normal north Tuesday, below to well below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers east Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers east Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

(c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.