Commodities Market Impact Weather

Planting Pace Likely to Slow

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More active and widespread periods of showers across the Corn Belt and Northern Plains, dry conditions and frost risks in Brazil, and a heatwave in Europe are the weather factors holding the market's attention Friday.

COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

A front is starting to move its way east through the Midwest, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms through the region through the weekend in a couple of waves. That will slow planting from its rapid pace this week, but some areas will find the time and proper conditions to complete their tasks anyway. Still, more showers will be possible in a few waves next week that will make it more difficult.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms and severe weather moved through Nebraska and Kansas on Thursday, which is now advancing southeastward on Friday. Occasional isolated showers will move through the rest of the region at times through next week. Drought remains a mainstay in the southwest, which continues to have negative impacts for wheat. Showers through next week will only have limited benefits, even if heavy, and come with risks for severe weather.

COLD AND WET IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A cold trough that has been in the Pacific Northwest all week is finally moving eastward. The region will see some warmer temperatures, but small disturbances will keep showers going into next week. Another trough will move in mid- to late-next week with colder air once again. The showers will keep crop conditions in relatively good shape, but colder air will keep growth slower.

STRONG WINDS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms moved through the Northern Plains this week, keeping soils too wet to work in many areas. That system is on its way out on Friday but is leaving behind some strong winds and colder temperatures. A few isolated showers will be possible in the cooler air over the weekend. A couple of disturbances and systems will move through next week as well, making planting a difficult endeavor for most of the region.

SCATTERED SHOWERS COMING BACK TO DELTA

A frontal boundary west of the Delta will eventually move through the region this weekend, bringing in some showers. Planting windows have been open all week but will find some difficulty this weekend. Northern areas may stay active at times next week. That would offer continued beneficial soil moisture but could slow planting progress.

FROST POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Soil moisture continues to be critical in central Brazil as corn goes through pollination and grain-fill. Southern Brazil saw showers earlier this week with another round to come this weekend, which will be helpful for some of the crop and keep soils from getting too dry. Cold temperatures behind the weekend system may set up several days of frost next week for southern states. That could damage safrinha corn that is pollinating to filling but will definitely slow growth.

DRYNESS NOT YET CONCERNING FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

Despite a system moving through Argentina Friday and Saturday, showers are likely to be limited to the far south wheat areas and northwestern corn and soybean areas. Showers are unlikely to add to the soil moisture profile for wheat development or hinder much of the corn and soybean harvest. Colder temperatures this weekend into next week could mean localized frosts again.

COOL AND SHOWERY IN BLACK SEA

Conditions in the Black Sea region have been favorable for winter wheat development and fair for corn planting. A couple of storm systems moving through over the next week should add to soil moisture in some areas but will miss others. Colder temperatures moving in next week could mean some localized frost risks over northern and more elevated areas.

HEATWAVE BUILDING IN WESTERN EUROPE

More showers are needed across northern Europe as it has turned drier recently. Shower activity will come through the continent occasionally through next week, but not as consistently as needed. A heatwave building into the continent will continue through much of next week, especially over western areas. That will stress those areas that are drier for both reproductive winter crops and developing spring crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick