DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a trough in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains, a ridge in the East, and a cutoff low moving into the Southeast. The trough will push the ridge off the East Coast this weekend as a ridge builds behind it in the West.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the western ridge will gradually expand eastward next week across the south and another trough will move into the West by late next week and into the middle of the country next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are mostly similar with the overall pattern. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal across the north and above normal south. Colder temperatures will build into the West by the end of next week and spread eastward behind a system over the weekend. A disturbance will bring scattered showers to the northern tier of the country in the middle of next week, followed by stronger system at the end of the week into the weekend.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...108 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW THU...4 AT BODIE CA

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT THURSDAY...MINNEAPOLIS-ST PAUL MN 1.94 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains, a ridge in the East, and a cutoff low moving into the Southeast. The trough will push the ridge off the East Coast this weekend as a ridge builds behind it in the West.

The ridge will gradually expand eastward next week across the south and another trough will move into the West by late next week and into the middle of the country next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are mostly similar with the overall pattern. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal across the north and above normal south. Colder temperatures will build into the West by the end of next week and spread eastward behind a system over the weekend. A disturbance will bring scattered showers to the northern tier of the country in the middle of next week, followed by stronger system at the end of the week into the weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms moved through the region this week, keeping soils too wet to work in many areas. That system is on its way out on Friday. A few isolated showers will be possible in the cooler air over the weekend. A couple of disturbances and systems will move through next week as well, making planting a difficult endeavor for most of the region.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers and thunderstorms and severe weather moved through Nebraska and Kansas on Thursday which is now advancing southeastward on Friday. Occasional isolated showers will move through the rest of the region at times through next week.

Drought remains a mainstay in the southwest, which continues to have negative impacts for developing wheat. Showers through next week will only have limited benefits, even if heavy, and come with risks for severe weather.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front is starting to move its way east through the region, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms through the region through the weekend in a couple of waves. That will slow planting from its rapid pace this week, but some areas will find the timing and proper conditions to complete their tasks anyway. Still, more showers will be possible in a few waves next week that will make it more difficult.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A frontal boundary off to the west will eventually move through the region this weekend, bringing in some showers. Planting windows have been open all week but will find some difficulty this weekend.

Northern areas may stay active at times next week. That would offer continued beneficial soil moisture, but could slow planting pace.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): A cold trough that has been in the region all week is finally moving eastward. The region will see some warmer temperatures but small disturbances will keep showers going into next week. Another trough will move in mid-late next week with colder air once again. The showers will keep crop conditions in relatively good shape but colder air will keep growth slower.

BRAZIL (CORN): Soil moisture continues to be critical in central Brazil as corn continues to go through pollination and grain-fill. Southern Brazil saw showers earlier this week with another round to come this weekend, which will be helpful for some of the crop and allow soils from getting too dry overall. Cold temperatures behind the weekend system may set up several days of frost next week, which could damage safrinha corn that is pollinating to filling, but will definitely slow growth.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Despite a system moving through Friday and Saturday, showers are likely to be limited to the far south wheat areas and northwestern corn and soybean areas. Showers are unlikely to add to the soil moisture profile for wheat development, or hinder much of the corn and soybean harvest. Colder temperatures this weekend into next week could mean localized frosts again.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CANOLA): Planting remains difficult to accomplish in eastern areas due to wetness and overland flooding. Western areas are drier, but picked up some scattered showers so far this week. A trough will push eastward this weekend, but is producing some heavy rain and thunderstorms in Saskatchewan and Manitoba through Saturday, possibly producing some accumulating snow in eastern Saskatchewan. Planting is likely to remain slow in the east, but could slow down in the west due to the showers. More showers are indicated for next week as well as colder temperatures. The soil moisture benefits may outweigh the slower planting progress in the long run, but producers may need to switch crop types if it continues to be wet for too long.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): More showers are needed across northern areas as they have turned drier recently. Shower activity will come through the continent occasionally through next week, but not consistently as needed. A heat wave building into the continent will continue through much of next week, especially over western areas. That will stress those areas that are drier for both reproductive winter crops and developing spring crops.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Conditions have been favorable for winter wheat development and fair for corn planting. A couple of storm systems moving through over the next week should add to soil moisture in some areas, but will miss others as well. Colder temperatures moving in next week could mean some localized frost risks over northern and more elevated areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated showers northwest. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Friday, above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers west Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Periods of isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday.

Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday, below to well below normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday-Sunday, north Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal south and above normal north Monday, below to well below normal south and near to above normal north Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers east Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers east Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Tuesday.


John Baranick