DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...112 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW TUE...10 AT SULA MT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT TUESDAY...JUNEAU AK 0.57 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the West, a ridge in the East, and a cutoff low off the Carolina coast. The trough will eventually be strong enough to push the ridge eastward this weekend as a ridge builds behind it in the West next week. The cutoff low will move westward over the next couple of days, eventually meeting up with the eastward advancing trough. The ridge will gradually expand eastward next week, and another trough will move into the Pacific Northwest by late next week.

The U.S. and European models are mostly similar with the overall pattern. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to below normal in the North-Central and above normal elsewhere. Colder temperatures will spread eastward through the Northeast into early next week, with more cold temperatures building into the West by the end of next week. Temperatures will stay warm across the South. A system will move off the East Coast early next week. Another disturbance will bring scattered showers to the northern tier of the country early to mid-next week, followed by another at the end of the week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): The region will be on the edge of warm and cold weather over the next few days with a front in the area. A system will move through the region with scattered showers through Friday before drying out. A few isolated showers will be possible in the cooler air over the weekend. A couple of disturbances and systems will move through next week as well, making planting a difficult endeavor for most of the region.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Hot temperatures and occasional rain and thunderstorms will move through the region through the weekend. All areas will have chances for brief showers. Drought remains a mainstay in the southwest, which continues to have negative impacts for developing wheat. Showers this week will only have limited benefits, even if heavy, and come with risks for severe weather.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front is stalled out in the northwest corner of the region for the rest of the week, offering chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms and severe weather. Heat and dryness to the east continues to promote better planting opportunities. The system will slowly move eastward this weekend into Monday, cutting temperatures back and offering occasional showers. Showers should cool off the planting pace, but windows will not close entirely. Still, more showers will be possible in a few waves next week that will make it more difficult.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A frontal boundary will remain parked well to the west this week, bringing in hot and dry conditions. This should promote additional spring planting. The frontal boundary will eventually move through the region this weekend, bringing in some showers. If the front gets held up in the region next week, we could see several rounds of showers.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): A cold trough and several disturbances within it will keep temperatures cooler and showers around through the weekend. Showers are unlikely to produce widespread issues for remaining planting, or decrease drought in the region. Colder temperatures will limit wheat growth, however.

More showers will be possible next week with another trough moving in.

BRAZIL (CORN): Soil moisture continues to decline in central Brazil as corn continues to go through pollination and grain-fill with critical amounts of available moisture. Southern Brazil is seeing some showers Tuesday now into Wednesday with another round to come this weekend, which will be helpful for some of the crop and allow soils from getting too dry overall. We will have to watch temperatures behind a system next week, as there could be some localized frosts in some areas.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Dry weather will continue for the next couple of days. Despite a system moving through Friday and Saturday, showers are likely to be limited to the far south wheat areas and northwestern corn and soybean areas. Showers are unlikely to add to the soil moisture profile for wheat development, or hinder much of the corn and soybean harvest. Colder temperatures this weekend into next week could mean localized frosts again.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CANOLA): Planting remains difficult to accomplish in eastern areas due to wetness and overland flooding. Western areas are drier, but picked up some scattered showers so far this week. A trough will remain overhead through the rest of the week and into the weekend, providing widespread shower opportunities across the region, especially in the east.

Planting is likely to remain slow in the east, but could slow down in the west due to the showers as well. More showers are indicated for next week as well.

The soil moisture benefits will likely outweigh the slower planting progress in the long run, but producers may need to switch crop types if it continues to be wet for too long.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): More showers are needed across northern areas as they have turned drier recently. Shower activity will come through occasionally through next week, but not consistently as needed. Scattered showers may make it to France and Italy while missing others. A heat wave building into the continent will continue through much of next week as well. That will stress those areas that are drier for both reproductive winter crops and developing spring crops.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Conditions are favorable for winter wheat development and are fair for corn planting. A couple of storm systems moving through over the next week should add to soil moisture in some areas, but will miss others as well. Overall, conditions are fair.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated shower northwest. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

East: Isolated showers northwest through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers southwest. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Periods of isolated showers through Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

6 -to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday.

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