Commodities Market Impact Weather

Pattern Change to Benefit Midwest Planting

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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LINCOLN, Neb. (DTN) -- A weather pattern change to drier and warmer conditions for central U.S. corn planting and evidence of drought damage to wheat in the Southern Plains and South Asia are the primary weather factors for the commodity market's attention Friday.

MIDWEST PATTERN CHANGE FORECAST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for a weather pattern change to benefit U.S. corn planting during the next week to ten days. Forecast models feature a drier southerly air flow across the central U.S. during the coming week to ten days. This will be more favorable to field drying and planting progress. In addition, temperatures have a near to above normal component -- a notable change from the very cool pattern that ushered in the month of May.

SOUTHERN PLAINS DROUGHT DAMAGE

Reports of significant damage to the Oklahoma wheat crop from a statewide tour during the past week offer evidence of drought impact. The region has only light rain in the forecast through the next week. This combination will further exhaust the already withered winter wheat crop.

MORE RAIN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, periods of light to moderate rain during the next week to ten days will offer continued drought easing but will keep spring planting slow. Concern over possible prevented planting and lost acreage for row crops and spring wheat is notable in the region.

HEAT FOR DELTA

The Delta has mainly light showers and very warm to hot temperatures in the next ten-day forecast. This trend will favor planting, but heat may lead to some stress on early growing crops.

ADDITIONAL EASTERN PRAIRIES RAIN

Canadian Prairies crop areas have an active pattern to bring light to moderate precipitation over the next seven days. Some eastern areas have locally heavy amounts possible. Showers will benefit drier western areas but will disrupt fieldwork and seeding progress in eastern areas where soils are saturated.

LIGHT BRAZIL RAIN

Across Brazil, central crop areas continue with only light showers in the seven-day forecast. The minimal precipitation will be accompanied by above normal temperatures with stress on the safrinha corn crop in Mato Grosso and Goias. The states of Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana, where conditions are more favorable, will also see only light amounts of precipitation during this time frame. Latest projections for the safrinha corn crop are lower than previous expectations due to the impact of heat and dryness.

LIMITED ARGENTINA RAINFALL

Central Argentina crop areas have a mainly dry pattern ahead through the next week, along with seasonal temperatures. The light precipitation will favor row-crop harvest. Winter wheat could use more soil moisture.

FAVORABLE BLACK SEA FIELDWORK CONDITIONS

Black Sea region crop areas have light rainfall and seasonal temperatures in the seven-day forecast. Conditions remain generally favorable for corn and sunflower planting along with winter wheat in its reproductive stages.

ONGOING HEAT DAMGE TO INDIA WHEAT

India's wheat crop has been badly damaged by heat and drought in March and April. Reports continue to indicate sharply lower wheat production and the potential for reduced wheat exports. Temperature records indicate that April was the hottest in India since recordkeeping began in 1901. Key wheat-producing states of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh have been especially hard hit.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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