Commodities Market Impact Weather

Possible Planting Window Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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LINCOLN, Neb. (DTN) -- Indications of drier and warmer conditions to favor corn planting in the central U.S. during the next ten days and ongoing drought issues in the Southern Plains and in South Asia are the primary weather factors for the commodity market's attention Thursday.

IMPROVED PLANTING CONDITION FORECAST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for improved conditions for corn planting during the next week to ten days. Forecast models indicate light to moderate rainfall across the central U.S. during the next ten days, mostly occurring during the upcoming Mother's Day weekend. The balance of the ten-day period features a drier trend, which will be more favorable to field drying and planting progress. In addition, temperatures have a near to above normal component -- a notable change from the very cool pattern that ushered in the month of May. Corn planting progress is the slowest in nine years, going back to 2013, so this forecast will be closely tracked.

LATE-ARRIVING SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN

Many Southern Plains crop areas are receiving shower and thunderstorm activity Thursday. However, the rain is bypassing the hardest-hit drought areas of the western sector of the region. Moisture will be more beneficial for row crops. The balance of the next seven to ten-day period is drier with above to much-above normal temperatures. This combination will further exhaust the already-withered winter wheat crop. The Oklahoma Grain and Feed Association now estimates the state's 2022 crop to total only around half the harvest of a year ago.

SLOW NORTHERN PLAINS PLANTING

In the Northern Plains, periods of light to moderate rain during the next week to ten days will keep spring planting slow. Concern over possible prevented planting and lost acreage for row crops and spring wheat is notable in the region.

DRIER AND HOTTER DELTA FORECAST

The Delta has mainly light showers and very warm to hot temperatures in the next ten-day forecast. This trend will favor planting, but heat may lead to some stress on early growing crops.

ACTIVE PRAIRIES PATTERN

Canadian Prairies crop areas have an active pattern to bring light to moderate precipitation over the next seven days. Showers will benefit drier western areas but will disrupt fieldwork and seeding progress in eastern areas where soils are saturated.

LIGHT BRAZIL RAIN FORECAST

Across Brazil, central crop areas continue with no more than merely light showers in the seven-day forecast. The minimal precipitation will be accompanied by above normal temperatures with stress on the safrinha corn crop in Mato Grosso and Goias. The states of Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana, where conditions are more favorable, will also see only light amounts of precipitation during this time frame.

MAINLY DRY IN ARGENTINA

Central Argentina crop areas have a mainly dry pattern ahead through the next week, along with seasonal temperatures. The light precipitation will favor row-crop harvest. Winter wheat could use more soil moisture.

SEASONAL BLACK SEA CONDITIONS

Black Sea region crop areas have light rainfall and seasonal temperatures in the seven-day forecast. Conditions remain generally favorable for corn and sunflower planting along with winter wheat in its reproductive stages.

HEAT DAMAGES INDIA WHEAT

Reports from India continue to indicate sharply lower wheat production and reduced wheat exports following damaging heat and drought in March and April. Temperature records indicate April was the hottest in India since recordkeeping began in 1901. Key wheat-producing states of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh have been especially hard hit. Some production estimates point to a decline of 25% from the 2021 crop in these states.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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