Commodities Market Impact Weather

Continued US Rain Prospects

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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LINCOLN, Neb. (DTN) -- Additional periods of central U.S. rain in the next ten days to two weeks and indications of a variable rainfall forecast for Brazil's main second-crop corn areas are the primary weather factors for the commodity market's attention Wednesday.

RAINY MIDWEST FORECAST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast continues to point to an unsettled pattern across the Midwest during the next 10 to 14 days. This pattern features periods of showers and thunderstorms and variable temperatures. This combination will continue to hinder fieldwork and row-crop planting progress. Corn planting progress is the slowest in nine years, going back to 2013.

LATE SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN CHANCE

Southern Plains crop areas have several occurrences of rain in the forecast over the next 10 to 14 days. Rain will offer some benefit for winter wheat; however, drought damage to crop prospects is already significant. Winter wheat is assessed to be in the worst condition in more than 30 years, dating back to 1989.

DELAYED NORTHERN PLAINS PLANTING

In the Northern Plains, moderate to locally heavy rainfall is featured in the forecast for the next seven to 10 days. Spring planting is chronically slow in the region and will continue to notably lag the average pace.

IMPROVED DELTA PLANTING PROSPECT

The Delta has light showers in the five-day forecast, followed by a more open stretch of weather with dry conditions and very warm temperatures. This trend will favor planting and early crop growth.

EASTERN PRAIRIES SHOWERS

In the Canadian Prairies, a new round of showers is forecast for the already saturated eastern sector of the region during the next seven days. This will keep soils wet and cause more planting disruption. Spring wheat, durum and canola are all affected by this wet pattern. Meanwhile, dry western areas have only light precipitation with minimal drought easing.

MIXED BRAZIL RAIN PROSPECT

Across Brazil, central crop areas continue with either a dry trend or merely light showers in the seven-day forecast. The minimal precipitation will be accompanied by above normal temperatures with stress on the safrinha corn crop in Mato Grosso and Goias. The states of Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana are in better condition but will also see only light amounts of precipitation during the next week.

LIGHT ARGENTINA SHOWERS

Central Argentina crop areas have light showers during the next seven days. The light precipitation will favor row-crop harvest. Winter wheat could use more soil moisture.

FAVORABLE BLACK SEA PLANTING WEATHER

Black Sea region crop areas have mostly light rainfall in the seven-day forecast. Conditions are favorable for corn and sunflower planting along with winter wheat in its reproductive stages.

HEAT WITHERS INDIA WHEAT

India is reportedly making plans to reduce its wheat exports due to heat and drought damage to the crop. Temperature records indicate that April was the hottest in India since recordkeeping began in 1901. Key wheat-producing states of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh have been especially hard hit by the record heat; some production estimates point to a decline of 25% from the 2021 crop in these states. The intense heat is forecast to continue during early May.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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