Commodities Market Impact Weather

LINCOLN, Neb. (DTN) -- Continued wet and cool conditions in the central U.S. and a hot and dry pattern in central Brazil corn areas are the primary weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

COOL AND WET FOR MIDWEST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast features a mainly cool and wet pattern across the Midwest during the next week. This pattern will continue to hinder fieldwork and row-crop planting progress. The outlook for mid-May suggests a drier and warmer combination. This forecast will garner close attention due to the slow start and limited activity so far this season.

VARIABLE SOUTHERN PLAINS RAINFALL

In the Southern Plains, a highly variable rainfall pattern is forecast. Central and eastern sectors have moderate to heavy amounts in the seven-day forecast, offering beneficial moisture for high-production winter wheat areas. The very dry western sector has light to locally moderate amounts, with possible improvement in moisture for wheat, row crops, hay and pastures.

NORTHERN PLAINS FLOOD THREAT

Flooding continues to be a topic of concern in the Northern Plains, notably in eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Light to locally moderate rainfall in the seven-day forecast suggests a new dose of moisture to add to the wetness. Elsewhere in the region, lighter precipitation will allow for locales hit with heavy April snow to continue recovery. Spring planting remains behind the average pace.

SHOWERS FOR NORTHWEST

Northwestern U.S. crop areas will see several occasions of light to moderate rainfall during the next week. The moisture will be accompanied by cool temperatures with some slowdown in wheat progress.

SLOW DELTA PLANTING

Periods of showers in the Delta during the next seven days will keep planting progress and early crop growth slow. The ten-day period offers additional rainfall potential as well.

PRAIRIES MOISTURE EXTREMES

Canadian Prairies soil moisture has a sharp extreme profile, with dry conditions in the west and very wet east. This is leading to grower concern about seeding progress in wettest locales. Seven-day rainfall shows a light to moderate total across the region. Heaviest amounts will again be in the east with more seeding delays. Central areas will have scattered benefit from shower activity. Far western areas have very low amounts forecast with little improvement in the dry soil trend.

DRY SEASON UNDERWAY IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Central Brazil crop areas have only light showers with above normal temperatures in the seven-day forecast. The onset of the dry season, always variable in La Nina years, appears to have begun. This presents an unfavorable very warm to hot and drier outlook for the safrinha corn crop during pollination and filling stages.

LIMITED ARGENTINA RAINFALL

Most crop areas of Argentina have a dry pattern forecast with near to below normal temperatures over the next week. The drier trend will favor row-crop harvest. Winter wheat areas are in need of additional moisture during the early growth stage.

LIGHT BLACK SEA SHOWERS

Black Sea region crop areas have mostly light rainfall in the seven-day forecast. Conditions are favorable for corn planting, but winter wheat is in need of additional precipitation as that crop moves into its reproductive stages.

DAMAGING INDIA HEAT

Wheat areas of India have endured record-breaking heat during this spring season. Temperature records indicate April was the hottest in India since recordkeeping began in 1901. Key wheat-producing states of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh have been especially hard hit by the record heat; some production estimates point to a decline of 25% from the 2021 crop in these states. This production drop threatens to disrupt the balance of domestic needs and an ambitious plan to increase exports. The intense heat is forecast to continue during early May.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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