DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a ridge moving off the East Coast, a trough moving through the Central, a weak ridge in the Rockies, and a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Most of the features will move east through the week, but the Pacific Northwest trough will be slow to finally move into the West and then through the Plains over the weekend, weakening as it moves into the Midwest by Monday.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, another trough will move into the West next week as the pattern stays pretty active going into May.

The U.S. and European models are mostly similar with the overall pattern, but develop storm systems a bit differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to below normal for the north and near to above normal south. The colder temperatures may spread through the country going into next week, but will remain below normal across the north. A couple of systems will be possible next week as the next trough approaches. Scattered showers are expected for a good portion of the country, but not the southwestern Plains.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...96 AT ZAPATA TX AND FALCON LAKE TX AND ELOY AZ

LOW MON...1 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT SUNDAY...FORT SMITH AR 2.13 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge moving off the East Coast, a trough moving through the Central U.S., a weak ridge in the Rockies, and a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Most of the features will move east through the week, but the Pacific Northwest trough will be slow to finally move into the West and then through the Plains over the weekend, weakening as it moves into the Midwest by Monday. Another trough will move into the West next week as the pattern stays pretty active going into May.

The U.S. and European models are mostly similar with the overall pattern, but develop storm systems a bit differently. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to below normal for the north and near to above normal south. The colder temperatures may spread through the country going into next week but will remain below normal across the north. A couple of systems will be possible next week as the next trough approaches. Scattered showers are expected for a good portion of the country, but not the southwestern Plains.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy snow fell across the middle of the region while heavy rain fell over eastern North Dakota over the weekend, causing some flooding. There may be some showers in the middle of the week, but another storm system will move through Friday through the weekend with scattered showers which may include more snow. Cold temperatures in place will continue to keep melting slow and soils from warming or draining quickly.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A storm system brought some scattered showers to some of the drought areas in the west over the weekend, but they were not widespread enough to have much of an impact for too many producers. More showers moved through southeastern areas and has been much heavier. A disturbance will move through in the middle of the week with scattered shower potential, with more possible for Friday and Saturday with another system. Western areas are unlikely to see much, if any, help while eastern areas will continue to find better showers.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through the region over the weekend and Monday, keeping soils pretty wet in a lot of areas and limiting fieldwork. A disturbance could bring showers to western areas on Thursday with more widespread showers indicated for the weekend. Eastern areas may find a long enough window to do more widespread planting, though wet soils continue to hinder to that goal. Colder temperatures in place will also keep corn planting and wheat development slower than average.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front moved through with showers on Monday. Mostly dry weather should follow for the rest of the week, though, and planting progress should pick up pace. A system moves through this weekend and more showers will be possible.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Below-normal temperatures should remain the norm outside of a brief day-long warm up here or there for the next 10 days. Some showers will also move through at times, which may or may not produce some delays for wheat planting. The added moisture will be good for wheat development, though the colder temperatures will not.

BRAZIL (CORN): Safrinha corn in central Brazil continues to see declining soil moisture well ahead of normal. The absence of showers will cause temperatures to increase, producing even more stress. Southern areas will see waves of showers over the next couple of weeks that should maintain good soil moisture for developing to pollinating corn and winter wheat establishment.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Scattered showers are expected to continue in waves through Thursday, and across the far north going into the weekend.

Showers at this point in the season will have limited positive effects for corn and soybeans while hampering the ongoing harvest. Wheat areas are more favored as planting gets underway.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK): Heavy rain and snow again fell over eastern areas of the region over the weekend, including another blizzard with the strong winds. Colder temperatures will remain in place, slowing the melting progress. There will be periods of showers throughout the week as a couple of systems pass through, though drought continues to be an issue in the west along with the cooler temperatures.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through much of the region over the weekend, but not so much across the north, where showers are needed.

Periods of lighter showers will continue through most of the week. The showers will not pull any dry spots out of the dryness, but will maintain soil moisture for a lot of other areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through Ukraine over the weekend, but very little fell in Russia. Still, soil moisture is mostly favorable across the region for developing wheat. A couple of storm systems moving through this week will keep the showers going, though interspersed by dryness in a lot of areas. Precipitation over the last couple of weeks has been favorable, however.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below to well below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

East: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday.

Temperatures near to below normal north and near to above normal south Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Sunday-Thursday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday, mostly south. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.

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