Global Food Security Risks Growing

Ukraine War Leading to a 'Perfect Storm' for Global Hunger Risks

Right now, Ukraine farmers could potentially plant as much as 34.6 million acres this spring, or about 70% of traditional crop capacity. Several eastern regions could see less than 50% of typical crop planting. Coupled with that, right now, those farmers may only have access to about 40% of their normal needs for diesel fuel. (Map from Ukraine Civil Society analysis)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Members of Congress are raising greater concerns about global hunger tied to Ukraine's prospects for producing and exporting crops with lawmakers pointing to a "perfect storm" and a "seminal moment in world history" when it comes to potential food aid needs.

Members of both the Senate and House on Wednesday held separate discussions repeating similar themes about growing concerns over global food security. Congress is calling for more ways to support Ukraine, as well as ways to get more food aid out to the rest of the world.

Republican Sens. Joni Ernst of Iowa and Roger Marshall of Kansas held an update on Ukraine agriculture, showing areas of the country where farms have been attacked, such as missiles landing in fields, or grain bins and dairy farmers that were bombed. Marshall pointed to 2008 when high food prices led to the "Arab Spring" that toppled governments. Marshall said the war in Ukraine, coupled with drought and high input prices, are a "perfect storm" for food supplies.

"Every day this war continues takes us closer to the point of no return where we will see food insecurity at a global level because it prevents Ukrainians from planting, harvesting and shipping food. The commodity price explosion caused by this war will impact the pocketbook of every American already faced with staggering inflation," Marshall said.

Listening to Ukrainian analysts and activists calling for the U.S. to provide more military assistance, Ernst said, "Russia is using food as what they call a 'quiet weapon,' and they are targeting agriculture."

Ernst and Marshall used their platform to call on the Biden administration and NATO to boost military aid to Ukraine. "The best and quickest way to address the food security crisis is for Ukraine to win the war," Ernst said.

Hanna Hopko, a former chair of the Ukrainian Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee who is now working for an advocacy group with other Ukrainian activists, provided some analysis on Ukraine's potential ag production this year. Right now, Ukraine farmers could potentially plant as much as 34.6 million acres (14 million hectares) this spring, or about 70% of traditional crop capacity. Several eastern regions could see less than 50% of typical crop planting. Farmers are expected to plant more soybeans and sunflower, and less corn, according to Hopko's analysis.

Availability of ag inputs for Ukrainian farmers is also a limiting factor, particularly diesel fuel, which right now is projected at about 40% of normal needs. In addition, financing could be a struggle with only about 40% of the finance needs supported. Lack of fuel and financing could lead to a risk of crop failure, Hopko stated.

Typically, Ukraine exports as much as 6 million metric tons (mmt) of grains through its seaports monthly and as much as 700,000 metric tons (mt) of sunflower oil as well. Ports such as Mariupol and Odessa are now blocked from commercial vessel traffic, which includes sea mines being deployed.

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Ukraine does have rail flows to EU countries, as well as truck access to the EU Baltic ports. That rail capacity, though, is relatively limited. Current stocks of grain also risk storage availability for new crops.

Ukraine accounts for a high volume of wheat imports for countries such as Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Morocco, Yemen and Saudi Arabia, as well as others. For sunflower oil, India relies on Ukraine for 65% of its imports, while the European Union receives 82% of its sunflower oil from Ukraine, and China gets 40% of its sunflower oil from Ukraine as well.

Arif Husain, chief economist for the United Nations World Food Program, reiterated similar themes in his testimony before the House Agriculture Subcommittee on Livestock and Foreign Agriculture on Wednesday, focusing on trade and aid programs. Husain said the conflict happens at a time when global hunger is already at record levels. "This is a conflict that has global repercussions."

Husain also noted countries such as Lebanon, Yemen and Egypt will be greatly affected but much of this depends on how long the conflict lasts. He also pointed to fuel shortages for Ukrainian farmers to use planting corn, barley and sunflower seeds, as well as the wheat harvest that should take place this summer.

In a worst-case scenario, Husain said acute hunger could rise by 47 million people with sub-Saharan Africa being most affected. Husain also warned the World Food Program funding simply cannot cover the greater aid demands due to both spikes in commodity prices and shipping costs right now.

Rep. Jim Costa, D-Calif., chairman of the subcommittee, said in Wednesday's hearing that the world "is at a seminal moment in world history" on which historians will make judgments 25 years from now.

"You can look back at the 20th century and you can look at World War I and the Spanish flu, you can look at the Depression and World War II, Vietnam War and civil rights movement, but clearly this time period we are living in today, the last four years, the next four years, historians will look back 25 years from now and make determinations -- did we make more good decisions than poor decisions? We are going to make both. Hopefully, we'll make more good decisions and therein lies our challenge." Costa said.

Noting that U.S. food assistance programs were already important in addressing world hunger, Costa said, "Unfortunately, we may be called on to do even more in the coming months as we grapple with the fallout from Putin's war in Ukraine. We have already seen disruption of global grain and fertilizer markets, which will have significant downstream effects on countries that are reliant upon Black Sea trade," Cost said.

Costa and other members of the House Agriculture Committee colleagues are calling on USDA and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to use funds available in the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust to help address food insecurity.

Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D., and Rep. Glenn "GT" Thompson, R-Pa., ranking member on the full committee, also said they fear a global food crisis is approaching. Johnson said he is glad there are plans to use the Bill Emerson Trust but has "concerns at the length of time it takes for commodities to enter the pipeline -- can these countries wait until the fall?" Johnson said.

Thompson added, "There are so many simultaneous emergencies at the moment" and he thanked USDA and USAID workers who are addressing these problems. Thompson added he has reached "a pretty grim conclusion" that with Ukraine supplying a lot of food to the Middle East there is going to be hunger, death by famine and destabilization.

Also Wednesday, USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) released its own report citing how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has driven commodity prices higher. The war has caused at least 11 countries to implement export bans on products including wheat, wheat flour, barley, rye, corn, oilseeds, lentils, beans and pasta.

Ukraine accounts for about 10% of global wheat trade, 15% of barley, and 15% of global corn trade, as well as 50% of sunflower oil. "The prospects for spring planting and winter crop harvesting in Ukraine remain uncertain," FAS stated. "In addition to disruptions directly related to the war, producers may have to contend with limited available supplies of fuel and inputs, which could reduce potential plantings and yields."

Sens Ernst and Marshall Hold panel event with Ukrainian activists https://www.youtube.com/…

House Agriculture Subcommittee review of International Trade and Food Assistance Programs https://www.youtube.com/…

Testimony of Arif Husain, chief economist for the UN World Food Program https://docs.house.gov/…

FAS: The Ukraine Conflict and Other Factors Contributing to High Commodity Prices and Food Insecurity https://www.fas.usda.gov/…

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ChrisClaytonDTN

Jerry Hagstrom can be reached at jhagstrom@nationaljournal.com

Follow him on Twitter @hagstromreport

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