Commodities Market Impact Weather

Another Active Weather Period Next Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) --- An active period of weather in the U.S., but not for HRW wheat, and favorable rainfall in southern Brazil, but not in central Brazil, are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

MORE PRECIPITATION COMING TO MIDWEST

A system will continue to pinwheel slowly across the Midwest through Friday, bringing spotty showers to already soggy soils in most of the region. Colder air will move through with this system, which will slow the warming of soils. A larger pool of cold air building in the West this weekend will be the cause of some more precipitation next week and will be followed by colder air as well. This is likely to result in planting and fieldwork delays.

LIMITED SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEAT

With showers missing most of the Southern Plains this week, drought continues to have a negative impact on developing wheat. A pool of colder air moving into the West this weekend should provide northern and eastern areas with good chances for precipitation next week, but southwestern areas are more likely to be missed.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Scattered showers moved through the Pacific Northwest earlier this week, maintaining soil moisture in drought areas. A larger pool of cold air building in the West this weekend will be the cause of some more beneficial precipitation through next week.

HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers and strong winds in the Northern Plains end on Thursday. A larger pool of cold air building in the West this weekend will be the cause of some more beneficial precipitation next week, likely in the form of some heavy snow. This will be accompanied by colder temperatures for several days.

BRIEF DRY PERIOD FOR DELTA

Moderate precipitation in the Delta this week has helped drought areas in the south, while keeping soils wet across the north. After a brief dry period, a larger pool of cold air building in the West this weekend will be the cause of some more showers and thunderstorms next week. Continued wetness will delay fieldwork and planting.

DRYNESS CONCERNING FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Isolated showers will remain in central Brazil over the next week, but many areas will remain completely dry, drawing soil moisture out when it should be being built up. Safrinha corn will be able to use the available soil moisture, but this will leave the region more vulnerable if showers do not return before the end of the wet season that occurs later this month. More persistent showers will continue through the next week across the south. These areas have had improving soil moisture conditions for early safrinha corn growth, which is favorable.

SPOTTY SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

Isolated to widely scattered showers will develop in Argentina Friday into early next week. Rainfall will generally be light and not much help for filling corn and soybeans. That is followed by yet another period of dryness.

LIMITED BLACK SEA SHOWERS

Recent dryness has been building in parts of Ukraine, though some showers have limited negative impacts so far. Though limited, more showers are expected Friday through Monday before the region goes drier for next week. Overall, precipitation was above normal in a lot of places over the winter and mostly favorable for early wheat growth. More will be needed in Ukraine before too long, however.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick