Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Showers continuing but missing a lot of HRW wheat areas in the U.S. and favorable rainfall in southern Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Friday.

CONTINUED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

Soils may be too wet in some parts of the Midwest for producers to do much fieldwork. A couple of weaker systems will move through over the weekend with additional showers. A somewhat stronger system will bring even more mid- to late-next week. Below-normal temperatures will be the norm through the weekend into early next week. Growth on winter wheat will be slow as will warming of wet soils.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system brought scattered showers to the Southern Plains earlier this week but missed HRW wheat areas. Another system will bring some light showers through on Friday night. Additional showers will be possible Sunday-Monday across southern areas and another early- to mid-next week could bring additional showers. But impacts to wheat areas will be limited. Drought remains a large obstacle to good yields for winter wheat and for good germination once producers start planting corn and soybeans.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Scattered showers will move through the Pacific Northwest at times through early next week, maintaining or improving soil moisture in drought areas.

INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers that moved through the Northern Plains this week were mostly light with some moderate pockets in the Dakotas. Overall, drought areas in the west did not receive much help. A couple of weak systems through the weekend and a larger pinwheeling system early- to mid-next week will bring additional chances for precipitation, however.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR DELTA

Recent precipitation in the Delta has diminished drought across the south and has kept soils wet across the north. Periods of rain have caused delays to spring planting. Some showers may push through over the weekend in a few spots, but areas will have a chance to dry out briefly before a better chance for precipitation moves through in the middle of next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Isolated showers will remain in central Brazil over the next week, but many areas may remain completely dry, drawing soil moisture out when it should be being built up. Safrinha corn will be able to use the available moisture, but this will leave the region more vulnerable if showers do not return before the end of the wet season. More showers are forecast to develop over the weekend and through next week across the south. These areas have had improving soil moisture conditions for early safrinha corn growth, which is favorable.

DRYNESS FOR ARGENTINA

Scattered showers fell in eastern areas of Argentina this week, but mostly light amounts. Another week or so of dryness is expected before another system moves through, likely with a brief shot once again. Limited moisture will be unfavorable for late-planted corn and soybeans in most areas.

BLACK SEA SHOWERS MOVING BACK IN

Precipitation over the winter in the Black Sea has been above normal and should set up winter wheat in favorable shape for development. Scattered showers will move through over the weekend and more will be possible next week as well, favoring development.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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