Commodities Market Impact Weather

Stronger Storm Next Week for Midwest

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent heavy rainfall in the Midwest and Delta and favorable rainfall in southern Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention on Thursday.

CONTINUED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

A system will continue to spread showers across the Midwest Thursday with waning intensity. Soils that are a bit too wet will likely remain so for the next several days. A couple of weaker systems will move through during the weekend with additional showers. A somewhat stronger system will bring even more rain during the middle to late next week. Below-normal temperatures will be the norm through the weekend into early next week. Growth on winter wheat will be slow as will warming of wet soils.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system brought scattered showers to the Southern Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday, with heavier amounts over eastern areas. Another system will bring some light showers through on Friday night. Additional showers will be possible early next week with yet another system, but impacts to wheat areas will be limited. Drought remains a large obstacle to good yields for winter wheat, and for good germination once producers start planting corn and soybeans.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Scattered showers will move through the Pacific Northwest through early next week, maintaining or improving soil moisture in drought areas.

INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers that moved through the Northern Plains this week were mostly light with some moderate pockets in the Dakotas. Overall, drought areas in the west did not receive much help. There are several chances for precipitation to continue in the region through the middle of next week, however.

DELTA RECOVERING FROM SEVERE STORMS

Recent precipitation has diminished drought across the south and has kept soils wet across the north. Severe weather spread through much of the region on Wednesday, and wetness has caused delays to spring planting. Some showers may push through during the weekend in a few spots, but areas will have a chance to dry out briefly before a better chance for precipitation moves through in the middle of next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Consistent, but isolated showers will remain in central Brazil during the next week, favoring developing safrinha (second-crop) corn in some areas, but being too dry for others that will draw out more soil moisture. A front that moved through southern areas brought a good round of showers but that is weakening as it moves north. More showers are forecast to develop over the weekend across the south. Areas in the south have had improving soil moisture conditions for early safrinha corn growth.

DRYNESS FOR ARGENTINA

Scattered showers fell in eastern areas of Argentina this week, but mostly light amounts. Another week or so of dryness is expected before another system moves through, likely with a brief shot once again. Limited moisture will be unfavorable for late-planted corn and soybeans in most areas.

BLACK SEA SHOWERS MOVING BACK IN

Precipitation in the Black Sea region during the winter has been above normal and should set up winter wheat in favorable shape for development. There are some chances for more showers through the weekend with more chances next week as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick