Commodities Market Impact Weather

Severe Weather Likely With Big Storm

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Widespread showers moving through the country with the potential for severe storms and favorable rainfall in southern Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

MORE PRECIPITATION COMING TO MIDWEST

A system will move across the Midwest with widespread showers through Thursday, including some accumulating snow. Soils that are a bit too wet will likely remain so this week. Another system will pass through this weekend and may bring additional showers. Despite a little warmup ahead of the incoming system, below-normal temperatures will be the norm through the weekend into early next week. Growth on winter wheat will be slow as will warming of soils.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEAT

A system will bring scattered showers through the Southern Plains on Tuesday, but they will only be locally moderate outside of southeastern areas that could see some severe storms as well. Another system will bring some light showers through on Friday night but will be weaker in intensity. Drought remains a large obstacle to good yields for winter wheat, and for good germination once producers start planting corn and soybeans.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Scattered showers will move through the Pacific Northwest at times for the next week, maintaining or improving soil moisture in drought areas.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will bring scattered light showers through the Northern Plains on Tuesday, but most areas are not forecast to see much precipitation, especially in the drought areas. There are several chances for lighter precipitation to continue in the region for the next week, however.

DELTA BRACING FOR SEVERE STORMS

Recent precipitation in the Delta has diminished drought across the south and has kept soils wet across the north. Periods of rain have caused delays to spring planting. A system moving through on Wednesday could bring severe weather along with more heavy thunderstorms and cause further delays.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Consistent, but isolated showers will remain in central Brazil over the next week, favoring developing safrinha corn in some areas, but being too dry for others that will draw out more soil moisture. A front will move through southern areas on Wednesday and Thursday with a good round of showers before that front weakens as it moves north. Areas in the south have had improving soil moisture conditions for early safrinha corn growth.

BRIEF SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

A front will quickly move through Argentina on Tuesday with isolated showers becoming scattered when they get into far northern areas. This will be followed by another week or so of dryness before another system moves through, likely with a brief shot once again. Limited moisture will be unfavorable for late-planted corn and soybeans in most areas.

BLACK SEA SHOWERS LATE WEEK

Scattered showers moved through the Black Sea over the weekend along with above-normal temperatures, coaxing more of the winter wheat out of dormancy. Precipitation over the winter has been above normal and should set up plants in favorable shape for development. There are some chances for more showers later this week and weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick