Commodities Market Impact Weather

Drought Improvement for HRW Wheat

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Improvement in some of the drought areas of the U.S. and mixed rainfall amounts across South America are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

COLD AIR INCOMING FOR MIDWEST

A system brought widespread showers through the Midwest this week, heavy in some places, including across drought areas in the northwest. Spottier showers continue Thursday and a front moving through Friday will bring in some colder air for the weekend going into next week. Some areas in the east are dealing with wetter soils, making it more difficult to do fieldwork.

DROUGHT REDUCED BUT NOT GONE IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system brought widespread showers to the Southern Plains early this week and was the best precipitation drought areas have received in quite some time. Drought was reduced across much of the region but remains a large factor going forward. Models disagree on a storm system for next week that has some potential for more widespread showers.

FEWER SHOWERS IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Recent showers in the Pacific Northwest have helped build some snowpack and improve soil moisture prior to spring planting. Shower chances are becoming less frequent but appear to be adequate to finish out the month with some areas seeing above normal precipitation for March.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

The Northern Plains was mostly missed by a system moving through the country this week. A front moving through Thursday night will bring temperatures down for eastern areas going through the weekend but with limited showers. Some scattered showers will be possible early next week, but models disagree on that. Drought continues to be a concern in the west before spring planting starts up.

MIXED SHOWERS IN BRAZIL

Scattered showers have become isolated in central and northern Brazil. A front will allow for some scattered showers in southern areas through Friday before becoming drier again going into next week. Drought areas in the south need more rain and central areas will start to see moisture declining well before the dry season starts, which is unfavorable for developing safrinha corn.

BRIEF SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Widespread showers moved through Argentina this week and continue in Buenos Aires on Thursday as a low-pressure center lingers. A front moving through Monday and Tuesday is likely to bring only spotty showers. Showers will have mixed impacts on late-planted corn and soybeans, being good in a few areas and inadequate in others. Dryness is still a concern for the country.

BLACK SEA WAKING FROM DORMANCY

In the Black Sea region, conditions for wheat going into the winter were mixed and there are large concerns about production due to the war. Precipitation over the winter has been above normal and should set up plants in favorable shape for development as more of the crop slowly awakens from dormancy. There are some chances for scattered light precipitation going into next week, but most areas will stay dry.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick