Commodities Market Impact Weather

Heavy Rain and Severe Weather

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent favorable precipitation in the Southern Plains moving eastward and mixed rainfall amounts across South America are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

WET MIDWEST

A system moving across the Midwest through Wednesday is bringing widespread showers, keeping soils wetter in eastern areas, but improving drought in the northwest. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday with lighter showers but cooler temperatures through the weekend.

DROUGHT REDUCED BUT NOT GONE IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system is moving out of the Southern Plains on Tuesday and has produced widespread showers, including some snow from the Texas Panhandle into eastern Nebraska. This is the best shot of precipitation in western drought areas with nearly an inch of precipitation in some locations; but there may not be many chances moving forward. Drought will continue to be a negative force in the region, especially as wheat continues to grow out of dormancy.

FEWER SHOWERS IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Scattered showers moved through the Pacific Northwest over the weekend, helping to build some snowpack and improve soil moisture prior to spring planting. Shower chances will become less frequent but appear to be adequate to finish out the month.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

The Northern Plains was mostly missed by a system moving through the country this week. Another system moving through later in the week will bring temperatures down for eastern areas going through the weekend but with limited showers. Drought continues to be a concern in the west before planting starts up.

MIXED SHOWERS IN BRAZIL

Scattered showers have become isolated in central and northern Brazil. A front will allow for some scattered showers in southern areas Wednesday through Friday before becoming drier again going into next week. Drought areas in the south need more rain and central areas will start to see moisture declining well before the dry season starts, which is unfavorable for developing safrinha corn.

BRIEF SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Isolated showers continue in Argentina Tuesday, but a front clears out of the region on Wednesday while the low pressure lingers in Buenos Aires for Thursday with good precipitation. Showers will have mixed effects on late-planted corn and soybeans, being good in a few areas and inadequate in others. Dryness is still a concern for the country.

BLACK SEA WARMING UP

In the Black Sea region, conditions for the wheat going into the winter were mixed and there are large concerns about production due to the war. Precipitation over the winter has been above normal and should set up plants in favorable shape for development as more of the crop slowly awakens from dormancy as temperatures rise above normal this week. Some slight chances for light showers exist, but most areas will remain dry this week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick