Commodities Market Impact Weather

Widespread Precipitation Next Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A round of beneficial showers for the Southern Plains and mostly below normal rainfall across South America are the weather factors holding the market's attention Friday.

WARM AND WET MIDWEST

Recent precipitation in the Midwest continues to keep soils soggy and is preventing producers from getting into their fields. Temperatures above normal going into next week will continue to awaken more winter wheat out of dormancy and melt northern snowpack. A couple of systems will move through the region through next week with widespread moderate showers and some snowfall risks in the northwest, which will slow drainage of wet soils in the east and add to soil moisture in the northwest.

DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system on Thursday brought some precipitation across the Southern Plains, but mostly skipped over Texas and parts of western Kansas. Another system early next week brings a much better chance for meaningful precipitation across drought areas, but more is needed for winter wheat coming out of dormancy.

SHOWERS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DRYING UP

Scattered showers will continue in the Pacific Northwest through Monday as a more-active period continues to bring showers through. Precipitation is helping to build additional snowpack, improve soil moisture, and reduce drought prior to spring planting.

MELTING SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures above normal continue in the Northern Plains into next week. Melting snowpack in the Red River Valley could cause some flooding, but chances for precipitation are low through the weekend, which will not improve drought across the west. There is some potential for more widespread precipitation next week, but not as much in the west or as heavy for the rest of the country.

DRYNESS CONCERNS FOR BRAZIL

Scattered showers in central and northern Brazil will become isolated next week. A system will bring scattered showers to southern areas through Sunday, and another is forecast for the middle to end of next week, but below normal precipitation is forecast countrywide for the next two weeks, which is not beneficial for developing corn.

ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Dryness continues to be the theme in Argentina for the next couple of weeks. A system that brought moderate showers to central areas Thursday continues northward Friday with some spotty showers. Another system will move through early- to mid-next week, but overall amounts appear to be below normal except in the far north. Recent rains may have some benefit to late-planted corn and soybeans, but the dryness that is now forecast will limit those benefits.

BLACK SEA WARMING UP NEXT WEEK

In the Black Sea region, conditions for the wheat going into the winter were mixed and there are large concerns about production due to the war. Precipitation over the winter has been above normal and should set up plants in favorable shape for development once temperatures allow. Cold temperatures through the weekend will keep wheat mostly dormant, but warmer temperatures are forecast next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick