Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Spring-like temperatures and precipitation across the U.S., including forecast showers in the Southern Plains, and below-normal rainfall across South America are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

WARM AND WET MIDWEST

Recent precipitation in the Midwest continues to keep soils soggy and is preventing producers from getting into their fields. Temperatures above normal going into next week will awaken more winter wheat out of dormancy and continue to melt northern snowpack. A couple of systems will move through the region through next week with widespread moderate showers and some snowfall risks in the northwest, which will slow drainage of wet soils in the east and add to soil moisture in the northwest.

DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Above normal temperatures in the Southern Plains should awaken more of the wheat out of dormancy, but much of the crop will continue to find fairly dry soils. A system on Thursday will bring some precipitation across the region but tend to skip over west Texas and parts of western Kansas. Another system early next week brings a much better chance for meaningful precipitation across drought areas, but more is needed.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Scattered showers will continue in the Pacific Northwest into next week as a more-active period continues to bring showers through. Precipitation is helping build additional snowpack, improve soil moisture, and reduce drought prior to spring planting.

MELTING SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures above normal in the Northern Plains continue into next week. Melting snowpack in the Red River Valley could cause some flooding, but chances for precipitation are low through the weekend, which will not improve drought across the west. There is some potential for better precipitation next week.

DRYNESS CONCERNS FOR BRAZIL

Scattered showers will be focused on central and northern Brazil for the next couple of days. Recent precipitation has improved soil moisture across the south, but drought remains a big concern in these areas. Another system will move Friday through Sunday across southern areas with more scattered showers and another is forecast for the middle to end of next week, but overall, below normal precipitation is forecast country wide.

ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Dryness continues to be the theme for the next couple of weeks in Argentina. A system will move through Thursday and Friday with some spotty showers with another early to mid-next week, but overall amounts appear to be below normal except in the far north. Recent rains may have some benefit to late-planted corn and soybeans, but the dryness that is now forecast will limit those benefits.

BLACK SEA WARMING UP NEXT WEEK

In the Black Sea region, conditions for the wheat going into the winter were mixed and there are large concerns about production due to the war. Precipitation over the winter has been above normal and should set up plants in favorable shape for development once temperatures allow. Cold temperatures through the weekend will keep wheat mostly dormant, but warmer temperatures are forecast next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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