Commodities Market Impact Weather

Drought Expanding in Southern Plains

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Drought continuing to expand in HRW wheat areas and the end of a period of favorable showers in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

SOGGY EASTERN MIDWEST CONTINUES

Recent precipitation in the eastern Midwest continues to keep soils soggy and is preventing producers from getting into their fields. Temperatures are falling behind an arctic front, especially in the west, but will be short-lived as the cold spreads farther east over the weekend. More showers are anticipated with this system as well, being moderate to heavy in southeastern areas Friday into early Saturday. Temperatures will rise Sunday and continue above normal next week. A few weak systems could produce some occasional precipitation as well.

DROUGHT CONTINUES TO GROW IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

An arctic front moving through the Southern Plains over the next couple of days will bring in colder air, causing many areas to remain below freezing for more than a 24-hour period. The cold temperatures could cause frost damage to wheat that has been coming out of dormancy due to warmer temperatures recently. This front will produce some showers across the north and southeast, but largely skip over the southwestern drought areas. Drought has continued to deepen across the region and is a major concern for winter wheat. Chances for precipitation next week are low but not zero as a couple of weak systems move through the country.

SLIGHTLY ACTIVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

After a couple of dry days to end this week, more active weather is expected in the Pacific Northwest again starting this weekend and going through next week. The return to a more active pattern may support drought reduction as we get closer to spring planting.

ARCTIC COLD CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air will remain in the Northern Plains for the next few days but rise above normal this weekend and continue next week. Melting snowpack in the Red River Valley could cause some flooding.

SOIL MOISTURE IMPROVED FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Scattered showers continue for most of Brazil for the next few days, increasing soil moisture for safrinha corn development. Showers will move into central and northern areas over the weekend, returning southern states to dryness. The dryness that is forecast for the second half of March may undo some of the beneficial rainfall over the first half of the month.

SHOWERS COMING TO AN END IN ARGENTINA

In Argentina, one final system will push showers north into Brazil by Friday, returning the country to drier conditions. Recent rains may have some benefit to late-planted corn and soybeans, but the dryness that is forecast to follow will limit the benefits.

BLACK SEA STAYING COLD AND DORMANT

In the Black Sea, conditions for the wheat going into the winter were mixed and there are large concerns about production due to the war. Precipitation over the winter has been above normal and should set up plants in favorable shape for development once temperatures allow. Cold temperatures over the next week will keep wheat mostly dormant.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick