Commodities Market Impact Weather

Big Changes Coming to US

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A big storm system coming in several waves later this week to the U.S. and a period of scattered showers in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

WARM, QUIET MIDWEST UNTIL WEEKEND

Dry weather occurred in the Midwest over the weekend with increasing temperatures that melted much of the snowpack outside of far northern areas. Soggy soils will be a concern for early planting of corn and soybeans later in March. A strong storm system Friday through the weekend and a secondary push early next week will add to the wetness concerns across the east. But precipitation across the Upper Midwest will improve soil moisture, especially in drought areas.

SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS WHEAT STAYING DRY

Outside of some showers in the far southeastern Plains, dry weather was noted over the weekend with increasing temperatures. Dry weather continues for most of the week, but a storm system will move right through the region late this week with a secondary push going into next week. Scattered mixed precipitation is likely with the systems, but chances for meaningful precipitation across the southwest drought areas continues to be low. Temperatures will plummet behind the systems and could lead to frost damage for vulnerable wheat.

WAVES OF SHOWERS FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Some limited showers moved into the Pacific Northwest over the weekend and waves of showers will move through northern areas for much of the week, which should improve soil moisture. A stronger system will move through late this week with more widespread showers into the weekend.

NORTHERN PLAINS MILD, BUT NOT FOR LONG

Dry conditions were noted in the Northern Plains over the weekend with warm temperatures across most of the region melting quite a bit of the snow cover. The warmth will only last a few days and cold will return by the end of the week as a strong system to the south pulls down some colder air from Canada. Some light precipitation will fall across the region through the week before the system moves through.

SOIL MOISTURE IMPROVING FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Showers were isolated across much of Brazil over the weekend, allowing for more fieldwork in most areas. More widespread showers are expected this week, including across drought areas in the south, and should improve soil moisture for safrinha corn. Forecasts have mostly improved shower chances across southern areas through mid-March, which may go a long way for safrinha corn. Dryness that is forecast for the second half of March may undo some of the beneficial rainfall, however.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Scattered showers fell across much of Argentina over the weekend, improving some soil moisture across the country. Showers continue across the north through Tuesday and another system is forecast to bring widespread showers through the area Friday through the weekend. While showers will provide some benefit for corn and soybeans, and be especially timely for some areas, dryness that follows for the rest of March will continue concerns over production.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick