Commodities Market Impact Weather

LINCOLN, NE (DTN) -- Showers for dry areas of South America and more dryness in Southern Plains wheat areas are the primary weather factors for the commodity market's attention Thursday.

EASTERN MIDWEST MOISTURE FOCUS

The DTN Ag Weather Forecast calls for a cold front near or just south of the Ohio River to be the scene of widespread mixed precipitation northward through the eastern sector of the Midwest Thursday. Some areas that have seen increasing drought recently will find some relief, but not everywhere. Areas with ample soil moisture are at risk for some flooding with this moisture.

MOISTURE BYPASSES PLAINS WHEAT

In the Southern Plains, Thursday precipitation is targeting eastern parts of the region. Hard red winter wheat areas in the west will be largely passed over as drought remains a concern going into spring.

STAYING COLD IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains temperatures will be moderating some over the weekend but not going up above normal until the middle of next week. While the cold remains entrenched, the storm track will be pushed to the south for the rest of the week, clipping the south with light snow accumulations Thursday.

SCATTERED PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOWERS

Crop areas of the interior Pacific Northwest will have light showers over the next week. However, drought continues to be a concern going into spring.

LATE-ARRIVING SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAIN

Brazil has scattered showers indicated across central and northern areas for the next week, but with lower coverage and intensity than we have seen recently. Lighter precipitation favors soybean harvest and second-crop corn planting. There will be a period of better shower potential across southern areas for about a week starting Thursday, which may help some limited areas with better soil moisture for corn. But the dryness that follows will keep the overall benefits limited.

CONTINUED ARGENTINA RAIN FORECAST

Argentina crops have lower production estimates due to drought this growing season. Showers continue in the forecast through early next week but will be followed by a drier trend. Rainfall of two to four inches will be helpful for some corn and soybeans but will not be enough to turn around conditions across the country.

STRESSFUL PRAIRIES COLD

Bitter cold Arctic air has moved into the Canadian Prairies. Temperatures will moderate this weekend, but will not go above normal until next week, and maybe only for a few days. Stress to livestock will be increased.

VARIABLE EUROPE PRECIPITATION

Across Europe, waves of warmth and showers will flow through most of the continent this week. However, precipitation will be very limited in Spain, where concern continues for vegetative wheat. Conditions are much better elsewhere on the continent.

ONGOING NORTH AFRICA DROUGHT

Drought has been a concern for much of the North Africa region. Some showers will move through with a storm system next week but will not be enough to reverse fortunes and more is needed before damage cannot be undone.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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