DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a ridge across much of North America but with some disturbances around the ridge and one right in the middle of it moving into the Plains. The ridge will not last long as disturbances move over the top of it and underneath it throughout the next several days, eventually pushing it back to the west off the coast by the middle of next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the disturbances that move through will create a trough across much of North America by the middle of next week. This pattern of ridge-west and trough-east will be relatively stable through the end of January.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop disturbances a little differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will see another shot of cold air moving into the North-Central U.S. and then spreading through much of the eastern half of the country through the end of the week. Another cold shot will set up over the weekend as the pattern turns to rounds of cold air for the rest of January. Each cold shot will come with a system that could bring some moderate showers.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...82 AT DEL RIO, TX.

LOW THU...11 BELOW ZERO AT WILLIAMS FORK DAM, CO.

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6 P.M. CST THURSDAY...SEATTLE, WA, 0.24 INCHES.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION SIX- to 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across much of North America but with some disturbances around the ridge and one right in the middle of it moving into the Plains. The ridge will not last long as disturbances move over the top of it and underneath it throughout the next several days, eventually pushing it back to the west off the coast by the middle of next week. The disturbances that move through will create a trough across much of North America by the middle of next week. This pattern will be relatively stable through the end of January.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop disturbances a little differently. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will see another shot of cold air moving into the Northcentral U.S. and then spreading through much of the eastern half of the country through the end of the week. Another cold shot will set up over the weekend as the pattern turns to rounds of cold air for the rest of January. Each cold shot will come with a system that could bring some moderate showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Above normal temperatures are forecast through early next week. A system is bringing some moderate to heavy snow for eastern areas on Friday, which may mess up the temperature forecast a bit. Colder air is set to return next week in a couple of waves.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Though some showers are forecast for eastern areas on Friday and Saturday, dry conditions for the next week in the west will continue to leave the region in growing drought and unfavorable for winter wheat.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Above normal temperatures will be around through early next week, with a slight reprieve over the weekend as a system moves through with moderate snow across the west on Friday and then across the east Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will go on a down trend as some arctic air gets back into the region next week in a couple of waves.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A drier pattern has returned to the region after a couple of weeks of drought-reducing precipitation. Small disturbances will only bring limited precipitation for the next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent heat and dryness has damaged corn and soybeans in advanced stages of growth over southern states. Some producers have buried their losses to plant their safrinha corn. Wetter conditions across central and northern zones has had an impact on quality and delayed harvest. Conditions are reversing this weekend with better chances for rain across the south and dryness across the north. Both are favorable for producers.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Hot and dry conditions continue for the day or two with highs approaching or exceeding 100F, which have put incredible stress on early-planted corn and soybeans this week. Scattered showers return this weekend and will continue for about a week in a few spurts and waves, reversing the horrible growing conditions for at least a time. However, early-planted crops will have already sustained damage and the wet period is likely to be too short for vast improvement for late-planted crops. Drier conditions that are forecast to follow will not be favorable, either.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK): Above normal temperatures are forecast through the weekend. Temperatures may reduce stress on livestock, but melting of snow could make for some muddy fields and pastures instead. Colder air is set to return next week in a couple of waves, with the coldest air in the east.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Spain continues to be the lone trouble spot for winter wheat across the continent. Dryness this week continues next week and is not helpful to the Spanish crop, but most other places should still have favorable conditions. Italy is also going through a drier stretch but should have fair moisture supplies for now.

NORTH AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness has been a concern in Morocco all season long and has been increasing across Algeria and Tunisia over the last few weeks as well. There will be some isolated showers at times over eastern areas for the next week, but drought conditions will continue to hurt vegetative wheat across Morocco.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers continue over the east for the next day or two, providing continued favorable moisture for cotton and sorghum development. Western Australia continues to have drier conditions for the next week. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move through eastern areas next week with heavy rainfall potential that could produce flooding.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers northwest overnight. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Moderate to heavy snow Friday and Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday through Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday and Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers west Friday and Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday and Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday.

Six- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday through Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday through Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday and Saturday, mostly east. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, above normal north and below normal south Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday.

Six- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday through Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Friday. Scattered showers Saturday through Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday through Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, below normal Monday and Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, below normal Monday and Tuesday.

John Baranick