DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...83 AT ANAHEIM, CA.

LOW WED...26 BELOW ZERO AT VAN BUREN, ME.

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6 p.m. CST WEDNESDAY...MIAMI BEACH, FL, 0.95 INCHES.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION SIX- to 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across much of North America but with some disturbances around the ridge. The ridge will not last long as disturbances move over the top of it and underneath it throughout the next several days, eventually pushing it back to the west off the coast by the middle of next week. The disturbances that move through will create a trough across much of North America by the middle of next week. This pattern will be relatively stable through the end of January.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop disturbances a little differently. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be near to above normal for most of the country and near to below normal in the East. Another shot of cold air will come in during the extended period with another over the weekend.

A couple of disturbances will move from western Canada through the Midwest in the extended range. One of these may be a little strong next weekend. Cold air will follow behind both systems but likely become more widespread after the weekend storm.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Above normal temperatures are forecast through the weekend. A system will bring some moderate to heavy snow for eastern areas on Friday, which may mess up the temperature forecast a bit. Above-normal temperatures may reduce stress on livestock but melting of snow could make for some muddy fields and pastures instead and new snow could impact those in the east. Colder air is set to return next week in a couple of waves.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Though some showers are forecast for eastern areas on Friday and Saturday, dry conditions for the next week in the west will continue to leave the region in drought. Above-normal temperatures accompany the dryness, unfavorable for winter wheat.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Above-normal temperatures will be around through early next week, with a slight reprieve over the weekend as a system moves through with moderate snow across the west. Temperatures will go on a down trend as some arctic air gets back into the region next week in a couple of waves.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A drier pattern has returned to the region after a couple of weeks of drought-reducing precipitation. Small disturbances will only bring limited precipitation for the next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions over southern states continues to degrade corn and soybeans in advanced stages of growth while some producers have buried their losses to plant their safrinha corn. Wetter conditions across central and northern zones is having an impact on quality and delaying harvest.

Conditions should reverse this weekend with better chances for rain across the south and dryness across the north. Both would be favorable for producers as we approach the midpoint of the dual growing season and soybean harvest picks up.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Hot and dry conditions continue for the next couple of days with highs approaching or exceeding 100F, putting incredible stress on early-planted corn and soybeans. Scattered showers are forecast to return this weekend and may continue for about a week, reversing the horrible growing conditions for at least a time. However, early-planted crops will have already sustained damage and the wet period is likely to be too short for vast improvement for late-planted crops. Drier conditions that are forecast to follow will not be favorable, either.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK): Above normal temperatures are forecast through the weekend. Temperatures may reduce stress on livestock but melting of snow could make for some muddy fields and pastures instead. Colder air is set to return next week, but more for eastern areas instead of closer to the Rockies.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Spain continues to be the lone trouble spot for winter wheat across the continent. Dryness this week is not helpful to the Spanish crop either, but most other places should still have favorable conditions.

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NORTH AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness has been a concern in Morocco all season long and has been increasing across Algeria and Tunisia over the last few weeks as well. There will be some isolated showers over eastern areas this week, but drought conditions will continue to hurt vegetative wheat across Morocco.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers continue over the east for the next several days, providing continued favorable moisture for cotton and sorghum development. Western Australia continues to have drier conditions for the next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Thursday morning. Scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday and Monday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday and Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

East: Isolated showers Thursday. Scattered showers west Friday and Saturday.

Isolated to scattered showers Sunday and Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

Six- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday through Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday through Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday and Saturday, mostly east.

Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, above normal north and below normal south Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

Six- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday through Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday through Monday.

Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday through Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday through Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, below normal Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday through Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, below normal Monday.

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John Baranick