This article was originally posted at 11:03 a.m. CST. It was updated at 12:14 p.m.
OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA increased corn ending stocks in the 2021-22 crop by 47 million bushels (mb) to 1.54 billion bushels (bb) and increased soybean stocks by 10 mb to 350 mb on Wednesday.
USDA also showed a record corn yield in the 2021-22 crop at 177 bushels per acre (bpa), beating the 2017 record of 176.6 bpa.
USDA on Wednesday released a slew of numbers with the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), as well as the Quarterly Grain Stocks report for Dec. 1, Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings and Annual Crop Production.
According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Wednesday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were slightly bearish for corn and neutral for soybeans and wheat, while the world ending stocks estimates were bullish for corn and soybeans and were neutral for wheat. Hultman pegged the Dec. 1 Grain Stocks report numbers as neutral for corn and soybeans and were bullish for wheat.
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-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
USDA bumped up corn production by 53 mb to 15.115 bb with the corn yield pegged at 177 bpa.
Total supply was pegged at 16.375 bb. For demand, USDA held pat on Feed and Residual use at 5.65 bb, but USDA increased ethanol use by 75 mb to 5.325 bb. Total domestic use came in at 12.41 bb, up 80 mb from previous reports.
On exports, USDA brought down projected exports to 2.425 bb, a 75 mb decline overall.
That brought in total use at 14.835 bb, a 5 mb increase.
Ending stocks came in at 1.54 bb, up 47 mb from the December forecast at 1.493 bb.
USDA held pat on the farm gate price at $5.45 per bushel, the same forecasted price USDA has maintained since October.
Globally, USDA lowered 2021-22 beginning stocks .46 million metric tons (mmt) to 292.23 mmt. Production was lowered 1.77 mmt to 1,206.96 mmt. That put global ending stocks for 2021-22 at 303.07 mmt, down 2.47 mmt from last month's forecast. USD lowered Brazil's production 3 mmt to 115 mmt and lowered Argentina's production by .5 mmt to 54 mmt. USDA also increased Ukraine's production 2 mmt to 42 mmt as well.
USDA bumped the average soybean yield for the 2021-22 crop up slightly to 51.4 bpa, still below the country's record yield of 52 bpa. However, that was enough to tip soybean production into record territory with an estimated final production of 4.435 bb, up 10 mb from the December estimate.
Soybean domestic ending stocks landed at 350 mb, as expected by pre-report estimates, up 10 mb from the December estimate. That boost was driven by the increase in production, after a 1 mb increase in the old-crop's ending stocks was offset by a 1 mb increase in residual use. USDA left soybean crush and export estimates untouched from the December estimates.
The average farmgate price for soybeans was set at $12.60, up from 50 cents from the December report.
Globally, ending stocks landed at 95.2 mmt, on the low end of analyst expectations and down from 102 mmt in December. Global production took a hit, dropping 9.22 mb to 372.56 mmt. That came largely from USDA trimming Brazil's soybean production down 5 mmt to 139 mmt, as well as a 3-mmt drop in estimated Argentinean production, down to 46.5 mmt.
USDA left wheat production for 2021-22 unchanged at 1.65 bb, but dropped the export estimate from 1.163 to 1.138 bb.
USDA increased wheat ending stocks from 598 mb to 628 mb, 18 mb higher than pre-report estimates.
USDA increased the average farm price from $7.05 to $7.15.
World ending stocks for wheat increased from 278.18 mmt to 279.95 mmt, for an increase of 1.77 mmt.
For beef, 2022 production is expected to clip along aggressively throughout the year, with the first quarter seeing the most production at 6,885 million pounds, and the fourth quarter seeing the lightest production at 6,680 million pounds. Higher placements of cattle amid poor wheat pasture conditions and limited winter grazing has increased on-feed numbers. However, we must remember is that there are also fewer cattle in the cycle due to high culling rates of both beef cows and heifers with drought conditions pushing ranchers to liquidate.
The data of Wednesday's WASDE report passes the fundamental logic test as the first three quarters of the year will have plenty of cattle to process, but come the fourth quarter, supplies should be thinner. The fourth quarter of 2022 sees lighter production than any of the quarters in 2021. I don't foresee that being because of weakened demand, but instead because supplies are tighter.
Prices for steers throughout 2022 remain stronger than any quarter of 2021. First quarter steers are anticipated to average $139, second quarter $136, third quarter $134 and fourth quarter $138. If slaughter speeds can run aggressively through 2022 like they did in 2021, I wouldn't be surprised to see fourth quarter prices stronger than what Wednesday's report deems. Beef imports remain unchanged for 2022 from last month, and so do exports.
For hogs, the first half of 2022 is anticipated to see lighter production than 2021 did, but come the second half of the year, 2022 production is anticipated to outpace 2021. The first quarter is anticipated to produce 7,005 million pounds, second quarter 6,535 million pounds, third quarter 6,765 million pounds and fourth quarter 7,210 million pounds. Barrow and gilt prices in 2022 are expected to trade comfortably from $60.00 to $65.00 in the first three quarters, but then are expected to dip down to average $55.00 in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, pork exports are expected to see a slight reduction as China hasn't needed as much U.S. pork, and imports are raised slightly.
USDA pegged total corn storage as of Dec. 1, 2021, at 11.6 bb, up 3% from December 1, 2020. Of those stocks, 7.23 bb are stored on farms, up 3% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks were estimated at 4.41 bb, up 4% from a year ago. Usage between September and November 2021 was pegged at 4.70 bb, down slightly from 4.74 bb in that same time period the previous year.
As of December 1, 2021, USDA estimated that soybeans stored in all positions totaled 3.15 bb, up 7% from the previous year. Of those, on-farm stocks were pegged at 1.52 bb, up 16% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were 1.63 bb, down 1% from last December. Usage between September and November 2021 was estimated at 1.54 bb, down 14% from the previous year.
Total wheat stocks stored in all positions as of December 1 was pegged at 1.39 bb, down 18% from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 273 mb, down 43% from last December. Off-farm stocks were estimated at 1.12 bb, down 8% from a year ago. The September through November 2021 usage indicated disappearance is 384 mb, 16% down from the same period the previous year.
U.S. WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS
USDA reports that farmers planted 34.4 million acres, up 2% from 2021 and up 13% from 2020. USDA estimate is higher than the Dow Jones' survey of 34.1 million acres and the highest in six years.
Hard Red Winter wheat seeded area is expected to total 23.8 million acres, up 1% from 2021. This is slightly below Dow Jones' pre-report estimates. Planted acreage is up from last year across most of the growing region. The largest increases in planted acreage are estimated in Kansas and Texas, while the largest decreases are estimated in Colorado and New Mexico.
Soft Red Winter wheat seeded area totals 7.07 million acres, up 6% from last year, higher than the pre-report estimate of 6.6 million acres. Compared to last year the largest acreage increases are expected in Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio, while the largest acreage decreases are expected in Maryland and Michigan.
White Winter wheat seeded area totals 3.56 million acres, up 2% from 2021, slightly higher than Dow Jones' estimates. Planting in Idaho and Washington was ahead of the five-year average throughout most of the planting process.
Editor's Note: Join DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman at 12:30 p.m. CST on Wednesday, Jan. 12, for a look at what the day's numbers mean for grain prices. To register, visit: https://ag.dtn.com/…
|U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2021-22|
|WINTER WHEAT ACREAGE (million acres) 2022-23|
|QUARTERLY STOCKS (million bushels)|
|U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2021-22|
|WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2021-22|
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