DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a ridge across much of North America but with some disturbances around the ridge. The ridge will not last long as disturbances move over the top of it and underneath it throughout the next week, eventually pushing it back to the west off the coast by the middle of next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the disturbances that move through will create a trough across much of North America by the middle of next week. This pattern will be relatively stable through the end of January.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop disturbances a little differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to above normal for most of the country and below normal in the Southeast. Another shot of cold air will come in toward the middle-to-end of next week. A couple of disturbances will move from western Canada through the Midwest in the extended range, somewhat acting like clipper systems. One of these may be a little strong toward the end of next week.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...85 AT SANTA ANA, CA.

LOW TUE...31 BELOW ZERO AT MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH.

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6 P.M. CST TUESDAY...SEATTLE, WA, 1.35 INCHES.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION SIX- to 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across much of North America with some disturbances around the ridge. The ridge will not last long as disturbances move over the top of it and underneath it throughout the next week, eventually pushing it back to the west off the coast by the middle of next week. The disturbances that move through will create a trough across much of North America by the middle of next week. This pattern will be relatively stable through the end of January.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop disturbances a little differently. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to above normal for most of the country and below normal in the Southeast. Another shot of cold air will come in toward the middle-to-end of next week. A couple of disturbances will move from western Canada through the Midwest in the extended range, somewhat acting like clipper systems. One of these may be a little strong toward the end of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Above normal temperatures are forecast through the weekend. Temperatures may reduce stress on livestock, but melting of snow could make for some muddy fields and pastures instead. Colder air is set to return next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Though some showers are forecast for eastern areas on Friday and Saturday, dry conditions for the next week in the west will continue to leave the region in drought. Above normal temperatures accompany the dryness, unfavorable for winter wheat.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Above normal temperatures will be around through early next week, with a slight reprieve over the weekend as a system moves through with moderate snow across the west. Temperatures will go on a down trend as some arctic air gets back into the region by the end of next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A drier pattern has returned to the region after a couple of weeks of drought-reducing precipitation. Small disturbances will only bring limited precipitation for the next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions over southern states continues to degrade corn and soybeans in advanced stages of growth while some producers have buried their losses to plant their safrinha corn. Wetter conditions across central and northern zones is having an impact on quality and delaying harvest.

Conditions should reverse this weekend with better chances for rain across the south and dryness across the north. Both would be favorable for producers as we approach the midpoint of the dual growing season and soybean harvest picks up.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Hot and dry conditions intensify this week with highs approaching or exceeding 100F, putting incredible stress on early-planted corn and soybeans. Scattered showers are forecast to return this weekend and may continue for about a week, reversing the horrible growing conditions for at least a time. However, early-planted crops will have already sustained damage and the wet period is likely to be too short for vast improvement for late-planted crops. Drier conditions that are forecast to follow will not be favorable, either.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK): Above normal temperatures are forecast through the weekend. Temperatures may reduce stress on livestock but melting of snow could make for some muddy fields and pastures instead. Colder air is set to return next week, but more for eastern areas instead of closer to the Rockies.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Spain continues to be the lone trouble spot for winter wheat across the continent. Dryness this week is not helpful to the Spanish crop either, but most other places should still have favorable conditions.

NORTH AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness has been a concern in Morocco all season long and has been increasing across Algeria and Tunisia over the last few weeks as well. There will be some isolated showers over eastern areas this week, but drought conditions will continue to hurt vegetative wheat across Morocco.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers continue over the east for the next several days, providing continued favorable moisture for cotton and sorghum development. Western Australia continues to have drier conditions for the next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Lake-effect snows. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Thursday. Scattered showers Friday and Saturday.

Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

East: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Scattered showers west Friday and Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to below normal Friday through Sunday.

Six- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday and Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday through Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers east Friday and Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, above normal north and below normal south Sunday.

Six- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday through Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal Friday through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday through Sunday.

Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

(c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.