DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a ridge spreading across much of the U.S with a cold trough exiting off the East Coast. The ridge will spread east through the week with some disturbances moving across the north and south ends of it.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the ridge will not last long as disturbances will eventually push it back to the west off the coast by the middle of next week.

The disturbances that move through will create a trough across much of North America by the middle of next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop disturbances a little differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to above normal for most of the country and below normal in the East. Another shot of cold air will come in toward the middle-to-end of next week. A couple of disturbances will move from western Canada through the Midwest in the extended range, somewhat acting like clipper systems. One of these may be a little strong toward the end of next week.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...87 AT FORT MYERS, FL.

LOW MON...34 BELOW ZERO AT BADOURA, MN.

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6 P.M. CST MONDAY...WEST PALM BEACH FL 1.14 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION SIX- to 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge spreading across much of the U.S. with a cold trough exiting off the East Coast. The ridge will not last long as disturbances move over the top of it and underneath it throughout the next 10 days, eventually pushing it back to the west off the coast by the middle of next week. The disturbances that move through will create a trough across much of North America by the middle of next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern but develop disturbances a little differently. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to above normal for most of the country and below normal in the East. Another shot of cold air will come in toward the middle to end of next week. A couple of disturbances will move from western Canada through the Midwest in the extended range, somewhat acting like clipper systems. One of these may be a little strong toward the end of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Above normal temperatures are forecast through the weekend. Temperatures may reduce stress on livestock, but melting of snow could make for some muddy fields and pastures instead. Colder air is set to return next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Dry conditions for the next week continue to leave the region in drought. Above normal temperatures accompany the dryness, unfavorable for winter wheat.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures will rise through the week, especially in the west. Temperatures will go on a down trend next week with some arctic air possibly getting back into the region by the end of next week or weekend.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A drier pattern has returned to the region after a couple of weeks of drought-reducing precipitation. Small disturbances will only bring limited precipitation for the next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions over southern states continues to degrade corn and soybeans in advanced stages of growth while some producers have buried their losses to plant their safrinha corn. Wetter conditions across central and northern zones are having an impact on quality and delaying harvest.

Conditions continue that way for the next few days but should reverse this weekend with better chances for rain across the south and dryness across the North. Both would be favorable for producers as we approach the mid-point of the dual growing season and soybean harvest picks up.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Hot and dry conditions intensify this week with highs approaching or exceeding 100F, putting incredible stress on early-planted corn and soybeans. Scattered showers are forecast to return this weekend and may continue for seven to 10 days, reversing the horrible growing conditions for at least a time. However, early-planted crops will have already sustained damage and the wet period is likely to be too short for vast improvement for late-planted crops. Drier conditions that are forecast to follow will not be favorable, either.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK): Above normal temperatures are forecast through the weekend. Temperatures may reduce stress on livestock but melting of snow could make for some muddy fields and pastures instead. Colder air is set to return next week, but arctic air may take until late next week to filter into the region.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers fell across a good majority of the continent over the weekend, but Spain was largely left out, the lone trouble spot for winter wheat across the continent. Dryness this week is not helpful to the Spanish crop either, but most other places should still have favorable conditions.

NORTH AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness has been a concern in Morocco all season long and has been increasing across Algeria and Tunisia over the last few weeks as well. There will be some isolated showers over eastern areas this week, but drought conditions will continue to hurt vegetative wheat across Morocco.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers continue over the east for the next several days, providing continued favorable moisture for cotton and sorghum development. Western Australia continues to have drier conditions for the next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to well below normal.

East: Lake-effect snows. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers north Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday through Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

East: Lake-effect snow early Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to above normal Friday, below normal Saturday.

Six- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal west and near to below normal east Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday through Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers northeast Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Six- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal Friday and Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

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