DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...86 AT BROWNSVILLE TX

LOW SUN...30 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT SUNDAY...HOUSTON TX 4.00 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the West and an arctic trough in the East. The ridge will spread east but not last long as disturbances move over the top of it and underneath it throughout the next 10 days, eventually pushing it back to the west off the coast by the middle of next week. The disturbances that move through will create a trough across much of North America by the middle of next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop disturbances a little differently. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to above normal for most of the country and below normal in the Northeast. Another shot of cold air will come in toward the middle to end of next week. A couple of disturbances will move from western Canada through the Midwest in the extended range, somewhat acting like clipper systems.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Dry weather occurred as another blast of arctic air moved into the region over the weekend. Cold will quickly be replaced by warmth over the next day and above normal temperatures are forecast through the weekend. Temperatures may reduce stress on livestock but melting of snow could make for some muddy fields and pastures instead. Colder air is set to return next week but does not look as cold as the arctic blasts we have seen over the last couple of weeks. That will have to wait until next weekend.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Dry conditions over the weekend for all but the far southeast continues to leave the region in drought.

Dryness this week will continue that trend while temperatures will be above normal through the weekend.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): After a brief warmup, cold temperatures moved back into the region over the weekend. That will be brief as temperatures warm from Tuesday and continue through the week, especially in the west. Temperatures will be more variable after that as a couple of systems move through the region.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A drier pattern has returned to the region after a couple of weeks of drought-reducing precipitation. Small disturbances will only bring limited precipitation for the next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions over southern states continues to degrade corn and soybeans in advanced stages of growth while some producers have buried their losses to plant their safrinha corn. Wetter conditions across central and northern zones is having an impact on quality and delaying harvest.

Conditions remain this way for the week but might reverse this weekend with better chances for rain across the south and dryness across the north. Both would be favorable for producers as we approach the mid-point of the dual growing season and soybean harvest picks up.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Hot and dry conditions over the weekend intensify this week with highs approaching or exceeding 100F, putting incredible stress on early-planted corn and soybeans. Scattered showers are forecast to return this weekend and may continue for 7-10 days, reversing the horrible growing conditions for at least a time. However, early planted crops will have already sustained damage and the wet period is likely to be too short for vast improvement for late-planted crops. Drier conditions that are forecast to follow will not be favorable, either.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK): Arctic air is on the way out and above normal temperatures are forecast through the weekend. Temperatures may reduce stress on livestock but melting of snow could make for some muddy fields and pastures instead. Colder air is set to return next week but does not look as cold as the arctic blasts we have seen over the last couple of weeks.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers fell across a good majority of the continent over the weekend, but Spain was largely left out, the lone trouble spot for winter wheat. Dryness this week is not helpful to the Spanish crop either, but most other places should still have favorable conditions.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers continue over the east for the next several days, providing continued favorable moisture for cotton and sorghum development. Western Australia continues to have drier conditions for the next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures falling below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated showers north Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to well below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

East: Lake-effect snow Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers southeast. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers northeast Friday.

Temperatures near normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday.

Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

(c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.