DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...89 AT ZAPATA, TX.

LOW THU...36 BELOW ZERO AT WILLOW CITY, ND.

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT THURSDAY...SEATTLE, WA, 1.52 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION SIX- to 10-DAY PERIOD:

The polar vortex has shifted to the eastern U.S. while another lobe of it is forming in western Canada. The western lobe will move across Canada this weekend into early next week with another round of cold air. A ridge will develop behind the trough and spread across the country next week. A pair of disturbances, one north and one south, will move around the ridge and deepen across the eastern U.S. late next week or weekend.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop disturbances a little differently. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal in the East and near to above normal elsewhere. A couple of disturbances will move both north and south next week and could combine across the East late next week with a more widespread area of showers and lower temperatures, but models are having difficulty resolving this potential.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Arctic weather will be around through Monday. Colder air will push east early next week and models are forecasting above normal temperatures for the middle of January, which will be a welcome reprieve from the arctic cold. The warm air may not last that long, however.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Arctic air in the region will be brief with higher temperatures moving back in for what appears to be an extended time through next week. Dryness will continue to have a negative impact on drought, especially in the western half of the region. There is potential for some shower activity mid to late next week but amounts are currently forecast to be low.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Arctic air has settled in for Friday and another will move through this weekend into early next week before a round of warmth is expected. Temperatures will not stay stable and we are likely to see a roller coaster ride through the end of the month.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): The active pattern is ending on Friday, but recent waves of precipitation have gone a long way in reducing drought thus far, but there is more work to be done in that regard. Next week is likely to be drier.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions over southern states are a major concern for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans, even with showers that have occurred over the last several days. Showers may continue in the state of Parana off and on for the next week, which would be favorable for some of the current crop. Scattered showers will continue over central and northern areas for the next week, which could delay maturation and early harvest of soybeans.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent showers have been overall inadequate for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. Another dry trend is in place for the country with temperatures in the 90s through the weekend and pushing 100F next week, which will cause further stress. There is still time for the weather to turn around in January to avert disaster, but the country continues to see a poor outlook for the next 10 days.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK): Arctic weather will be around through the weekend. Afterwards, the region is forecast to go on a warming trend for the middle of January which may not last for an extended period, but will be a reprieve from the arctic cold of the previous few weeks.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continue to spread across the continent with a couple of systems moving through. Spain is not seeing much precipitation, which is a drier area and could use more soil moisture for vegetative wheat. The rest of the continent is in good shape overall, building soil moisture for next year's crop across the North and for vegetative wheat across the South.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers continue over the east for the next several days, which could impact the remaining harvest of wheat and canola, while providing better moisture for southern cotton and sorghum areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered snow south. Temperatures well below normal.

East: Scattered snow. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers north Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures well below normal Friday, above normal Saturday, near to well below normal Sunday and Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

East: Lake-effect snow Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Lake-effect snow Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures well below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, below normal Monday and Tuesday.

Six- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers southeast Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Friday, above normal Saturday, near to below normal north and above normal south Sunday, near normal Monday, above normal Tuesday.

Six- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday through Friday, near to below normal Saturday and Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday through Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday through Tuesday.

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