DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The polar vortex continues to move through the U.S. over the next couple of days. Another trough will form in western Canada Friday and move across Canada this weekend into early next week with another round of cold air.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, a ridge will develop behind the trough and spread across the country next week. A pair of disturbances, one north and one south, will move across the ridge and deepen across the eastern U.S. late next week or weekend.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop disturbances a little differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be near to below normal in the East and near to above normal in the West with a general rising pattern through next week. A couple of disturbances will move both north and south next week and could combine across the East late next week with a more widespread area of showers and cooling temperatures, but models are having difficulty resolving this potential.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...86 AT ZAPATA, TX, AND FALCON LAKE, TX.

LOW WED...23 BELOW ZERO AT HINSDALE, MT.

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT WEDNESDAY...PORTLAND, OR, 0.84 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION SIX- to 10-DAY PERIOD:

The polar vortex continues to move through the U.S. over the next couple of days. Another trough will form in western Canada Friday and move across Canada this weekend into early next week with another round of cold air. A ridge will develop behind the trough and spread across the country next week. A pair of disturbances, one north and one south, will move across the ridge and deepen across the eastern U.S. late next week or weekend.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop disturbances a little differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be near to below normal in the East and near to above normal in the West with a general rising pattern through next week. A couple of disturbances will move both north and south next week and could combine across the East late next week with a more widespread area of showers and lower temperatures, but models are having difficulty resolving this potential.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Arctic weather will be around through Monday.

Colder air will push east early next week, and models are forecasting above normal temperatures for the middle of January, which will be a welcome reprieve from the arctic cold. The warm air may not last that long, however.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Arctic air in the region will be brief with higher temperatures moving back in for what appears to be an extended time. Dryness will continue to have a negative impact on drought, especially in the western half of the region.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Arctic air has settled in for Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures will bounce around afterward through the end of January as a few systems come and go.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): The active pattern will bring rounds of precipitation through Friday, helping to ease drought. Afterwards, the pattern is likely to take a turn toward drier.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions over southern states are a major concern for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans, even with showers that have occurred over the last several days. Showers may continue in the state of Parana through the weekend, which would be favorable for some of the current crop. Scattered showers will continue over central and northern areas for the next week, which could delay maturation and early harvest of soybeans.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent showers have been overall inadequate for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. Another dry trend sets up for the country with temperatures in the 90s through the weekend, which will cause further stress. There is still time for the weather to turn around in January to avert disaster, but the country continues to see a poor outlook. There is a quick shot with a system moving through early next week, but it looks like amounts will be too isolated and low to provide any significant benefit.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK): Arctic weather will be around through the weekend. Afterwards, the region is forecast to go on a warming trend for the middle of January which may not last for an extended period, but will be a reprieve from the arctic cold of the previous few weeks.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continue to spread across the continent with a couple of systems moving through. Spain is not seeing much precipitation, which is a drier area and could use more soil moisture for vegetative wheat. The rest of the continent is in good shape overall, building soil moisture for next year's crop across the north and for vegetative wheat across the south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers continue over the east for the next several days, which could impact the remaining harvest of wheat and canola, while providing better moisture for southern cotton and sorghum areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north, and south overnight. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered snow north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered snow south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers north Monday. Temperatures well below normal through Friday, above normal Saturday, near to well below normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Scattered showers Thursday. Lake-effect snow Friday. Scattered showers Saturday through Monday. Temperatures below to well below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday and Sunday, below normal Monday.

Six- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday and Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday through Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures well below normal north and near to above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers southeast Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures below to well below normal Thursday and Friday, above normal Saturday, near to below normal north and above normal south Sunday, near normal Monday.

Six- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers south Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly Friday and Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday through Friday, near normal Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday and Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

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