DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...88 AT IMMOKALEE, FL, AND MILES CITY, FL.

LOW SUN...41 BELOW ZERO AT CELINA, MN.

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT SUNDAY...HONOLULU, HI, 2.20 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge redeveloping in the middle of the country with a trough moving off the East Coast and another lobe of the polar vortex moving into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. This lobe will continue eastward through the country this week while another trough develops over western Canada late this week and weekend. That trough will quickly move through Canada while a ridge will develop across the West and spreads east behind the trough.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop disturbances differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be below normal across the Canadian Prairies and East with near to above-normal temperatures elsewhere. Lower temperatures from Canada will sweep across northern areas through early next week with rising temperatures across most areas by the end of next week. A system will bring scattered showers mostly east of the Mississippi River this weekend but the majority of the country will be on a quieter trend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Higher temperatures built into the region on Sunday, bringing some brief relief to outdoor livestock as arctic temperatures are set to move back into the region on Tuesday for a few days. Colder air will retreat back up into Canada next week and models are forecasting above normal temperatures for the middle of January.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through Friday and Saturday, but only eastern Oklahoma saw meaningful moderate precipitation. The light precipitation across the west will have no effect on the ongoing drought. After a blast of arctic air in the middle-to-end of the week, higher temperatures will move back into the region for what appears to be an extended time.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A system moved through the region with moderate showers and snow with heavy rain across the south and lower temperatures this weekend.

The cold is brief, which will be replaced by warmer air to start the week. But another blast of arctic air will move through mid-late week. A system that comes with it will bring some light to moderate snow across the region, heavier in the east late this week. Temperatures will bounce around afterward.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Precipitation was limited over the weekend, but the active pattern returns this week with daily precipitation through Friday. Afterwards, the pattern is likely to take a turn toward drier.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions over southern states are a major concern for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans, even with showers occurring through Wednesday this week and showers continuing in the state of Parana through Saturday. Scattered showers will continue over central and northern areas through the week, which could delay maturation and early harvest of soybeans.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers fell across the country over the weekend but amounts were generally light, as forecast. Showers will be possible through Tuesday before another dry trend sets up for the region with temperatures in the 90s, which will cause stress for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. There is still time for the weather to turn around in January to avert disaster.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK): Arctic temperatures briefly left the region this weekend, but they are coming back into the region Monday and will be around through the coming weekend. Afterwards, the region is forecast to go on a warming trend for the middle of January which may or may not last for a while but will be a reprieve from the arctic cold of the previous few weeks.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers will spread across the region this week with a couple of systems moving through. Spain is unlikely to see much precipitation, which is a drier area and could use more soil moisture for vegetative wheat. The rest of the continent is in good shape overall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): A few showers fell across far eastern areas this weekend, but most areas were dry. A subtropical system off the coast will spread moisture into the region later this week, which could impact the remaining harvest of wheat and canola, while providing better moisture for southern cotton and sorghum areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures falling well below normal.

East: Scattered showers, heavy south. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated snow north Tuesday night and Wednesday, south Wednesday night and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, above normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday, well below normal Thursday and Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday through Friday.

Temperatures below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, below to well below normal Thursday and Friday.

Six- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling well below normal.

Fprecast: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers north Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, below normal north and above normal south Wednesday, below to well below normal Thursday andFriday.

Six- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday through Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday through Monday, above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday.

Isolated showers north Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday, near normal Wednesday through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday.

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