DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Southeast and a deep trough across the West. The ridge will weaken a bit and allow the trough to move eastward through the country this weekend into early next week. Another trough will replace it in the West this weekend and then move into the middle of the country in the middle of next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

In the 6- to 10-day period, the main lobe of the polar vortex will continue to shift around North America through next weekend. An additional trough will develop across western North America late next week and weekend, while a ridge pops back up in the Southeast.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop disturbances differently. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be well below normal in the Northern and Central Plains and Upper Midwest, and near to above normal elsewhere. Arctic air will continue to push southeast through the country over the following few days. While it will remain cold across the Northern Plains into next weekend, warmer air will return to the South and Southeast. A frontal boundary will push south through the country next week as the cold air moves in, bringing some scattered snow showers to the northern half of the country.

If a system can form on the front late next week, it could bring heavier amounts to the eastern Midwest through the Northeast.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...91 AT COTULLA TX

LOW THU...40 BELOW ZERO AT WILLOW CITY ND

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT THURSDAY...LOS ANGELES CA 3.87 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the Southeast, and a deep trough across the West. The ridge will weaken a bit and allow the trough to move eastward through the country this weekend into early next week. Another trough will replace it in the West this weekend and then move into the middle of the country in the middle of next week. An additional trough will develop across western North America late next week and weekend while a ridge pops back up in the Southeast.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern but develop disturbances differently. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be well below normal in the Northern and Central Plains and Upper Midwest, and near to above normal elsewhere. Arctic air will continue to push southeast through the country over the following few days. While it will remain cold across the Northern Plains into next weekend, warmer air will return to the South and Southeast. A frontal boundary will push south through the country next week as the cold air moves in, bringing some scattered snow showers to the northern half of the country. If a system can form on the front late next week, it could bring heavier amounts to the eastern Midwest through the Northeast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Some occasional light snow may drift across the region over the next few days while the cold will continue to stress livestock. We should see a brief reprieve in the extreme cold Sunday and Monday before another arctic blast moves into the region. Cold weather is likely to last through at least next weekend.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A big system is setting up for Friday and Saturday. Widespread showers are expected, including freezing rain and heavy snow across the northern half of the region. Cold weather will briefly fill in with dangerous windchill temperatures for a couple of days, which will stress livestock. Precipitation will finally come to southwestern areas, but it will be light and not have a significant impact on drought. Drier conditions will follow into next week along with another blast of arctic air.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Moderate to heavy precipitation is expected Friday and Saturday, including a band of freezing rain and heavy snow. The precipitation may help out with some of the regional drought in the northwest but may lead to flooding in the south. Cold weather will sweep through the entire region behind the system this weekend but will be brief. Colder weather is set to return to the region mid-late next week with another arctic cold front.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): The region will stay active as systems move through during the next 10 days. Drought conditions will continue to decline, but it is a slow process.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions over southern states are a major concern for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. Rainfall continues to be very good for central and northern Brazil, though flooding has occurred in the minor crop areas in the far northeast. Some isolated showers will pop up at times over southern areas through early next week, but very spotty with limited impact. Heat and dryness should continue to force crop conditions to decline. Wetness across the north may start to impact harvest which will start up in the next week or so.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Dryness with high temperatures closing in on 100 degrees continue to cause stress for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. Some isolated showers will pop up at times into early next week, but it will be difficult for forecast rainfall to match the needs of the crops as conditions should continue to decline. Planting pace is still slow so there is time for the weather to turn around, but prospects are not good through the month of January.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK): Arctic cold weather will continue through Saturday as the polar vortex remains over the region. There will be just a small break in the harsh temperatures Sunday and Monday before the arctic cold returns next week. Stress on livestock will continue to be extreme.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continue in eastern areas, but western areas have dried out as temperatures have risen well above normal and spread through the continent. Some of the drier areas are not doing well, but most areas have adequate moisture from recent rains and vegetative wheat will benefit from the warmth. The continent will get more active next week, though Spain will be largely left out. This is one of the drier spots in the region and may find some stress for vegetative wheat.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Some isolated showers will remain possible over the next several days, but dryness is expected for most areas, benefiting remaining wheat and canola harvest. Heat in southeastern Australia could start to become stressful for cotton and sorghum in drier areas. A tropical system that forms in the next couple of days will likely stay offshore but will need to be monitored.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday. Isolated showers south Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Friday, below to well below normal Saturday and Sunday, near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers Friday night through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Friday, below normal northwest and well above normal southeast Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday, below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday through Sunday. Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast Wednesday, below to well below normal Thursday and Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal northwest and well above normal southeast.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal north and well above normal south Friday, well below normal northwest and above normal southeast Saturday, below normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Wednesday, below to well below normal Thursday and Friday, near to above normal Saturday, below normal north and above normal south Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

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