Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A big storm east of the Rockies Friday through the weekend and limited showers in southern South America are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

STRONG WEEKEND STORM IN MIDWEST

Moderate to heavy precipitation is expected in the Midwest Friday and Saturday, including a band of freezing rain and heavy snow. The precipitation may help out with some of the regional drought in the northwest, but may lead to flooding in the south. Cold weather will sweep through the entire region behind the system this weekend, but will be brief. Colder weather is set to return to the region mid to late next week with another arctic cold front.

PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND NOT ENOUGH FOR SW PLAINS

Some scattered showers developed over southeastern portions of the Plains on Wednesday but a big system is setting up for Friday and Saturday. Widespread showers are expected, including freezing rain and heavy snow across the Central Plains, which will stress livestock. Precipitation will finally come to southwestern areas, but it will be light and not have a significant impact on drought. Drier conditions will follow.

DROUGHT REDUCTION CONTINUES FOR PNW

The Pacific Northwest will stay active as systems move through during the next 10 days, building up snowpack and soil moisture for spring. Drought conditions will continue to be reduced.

FRIGID N. PLAINS SEEING ONLY A SMALL BREAK

Some occasional light snow may drift across the Northern Plains during the next few days while the cold will continue to stress livestock. We should see a brief reprieve in the extreme cold Sunday through Tuesday before another arctic blast moves into the region. Low temperatures are likely to last through at least next weekend.

ARCTIC COLD CONTINUES IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Arctic cold will continue in the Canadian Prairies through Saturday as the polar vortex remains over the region. There will be just a small break in the harsh temperatures Sunday and Monday before they return next week. Stress on livestock will continue to be extreme with the arctic cold.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Dry conditions over southern Brazil are a major concern for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. Conditions continue to be very good for central and northern Brazil, though heavy rain has caused flooding in the minor crop areas in the far northeast. Some isolated showers will pop up at times over southern areas through early next week, but will be very spotty with limited impact. Heat and dryness should continue to force crop conditions to decline. Wetness across the north may start to affect harvest which will start up in the next week or so.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

In Argentina, dryness with high temperatures closing in on 100 Fahrenheit continue to stress developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. Some isolated showers will pop up at times into early next week, but it will be difficult for forecast rainfall to match the needs of the crops as conditions should continue to decline. Planting pace is still slow so there is time for the weather to turn around, but prospects are not good through January.

GOOD HARVEST CONDITIONS IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Some isolated showers will remain possible in eastern Australia during the next several days, but dryness is expected for most areas, benefiting remaining wheat and canola harvest. Heat that comes into southeastern Australia could start to become stressful for cotton and sorghum in drier areas this week. A tropical system that forms in the next couple of days will likely stay offshore, but will need to be monitored.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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