DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...82 AT VERO BEACH FL

LOW TUE...15 BELOW ZERO AT ROLLA ND AND MINOT AFB ND

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT WEDNESDAY... DAYTONA BEACH FL 3.18 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the South and three troughs forming a lobe of the polar vortex in western North America. The vortex will spin around the West, sending a couple of pieces of energy through the rest of the country through next week.

The ridge is likely to weaken next weekend, allowing the vortex to spread through more of the country.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop each disturbance a little differently. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be well below normal in the Northwest and above normal in the South and Southeast. Colder temperatures will occasionally spread southward through the Plains and Upper Midwest as systems move through, being more aggressive behind a system at the start of the year. A front will reside across the middle of the country that will remain active as few systems form along it next week. There is likely to be a strong storm late in the week or weekend that will sweep the front through more of the country, producing moderate to heavy precipitation for some areas.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): A storm will move through Friday with limited precipitation but some snow bands on Saturday. Another will move through Sunday into Monday with more widespread showers likely. Cold air from the Arctic will spill into the region next week behind this system and the region will stay active as systems pass by to the south next week. The cold will stress livestock.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT) The west has remained dry with declining conditions for wheat and increasing drought. Despite an active pattern with systems moving through, chances for precipitation through the end of the year are low, especially in the west that needs it most. The best chance would occur with a strong system late next week that will bring colder temperatures to the region.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): An active pattern will bring several storm systems through the region over the next 10 days with moderate to heavy precipitation at times, including over the Christmas weekend. Cold air from the Arctic may spill into the region at times next week behind these systems in the northwest.

More widespread cold is forecast behind a larger system late next week or weekend.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): An active upper-air pattern will produce periods of showers through the end of the year, helping to increase moisture for dormant wheat. Temperatures will go well below normal next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers earlier this week are not enough moisture for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans in the south as temperatures will be in the 90s and cause soil moisture to be used up quickly.

With drier weather for at least the next week, conditions for corn and soybeans will continue to decline in the south. Conditions for reproductive to filling soybeans in central and northern areas continue to be very favorable and are setting up the safrinha corn season with good soil moisture.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers earlier this week were not enough for early-planted corn and soybeans that area getting nearer to or into reproduction. Most areas will be dry for at least the next week with chances for only isolated showers returning late next week. Planting continues to be slow as producers try to wait for better precipitation and soil moisture, though prospects through most of January are not favorable.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK): Arctic cold temperatures are building into the Canadian Prairies and look to continue into January as a lobe of the polar vortex settles in the region. Stress on livestock will increase due to the cold.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system in the west will spread through the rest of the continent over the next day or two. This is the start of a more active pattern through most of next week. Conditions for developing wheat across the south remain favorable.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Some isolated showers will be possible through the weekend across eastern areas, and possibly heavy this weekend in Queensland. But for the most part, the showers are not concerning for the remaining wheat and canola harvest. Conditions are good for developing cotton and sorghum as well. Showers may get heavier toward the middle of next week, which would be more concerning for crops still out in the field.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated lake-effect showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday.

East: Isolated showers north Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, well above normal Friday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast Tuesday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday, north Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers east Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers east Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

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