Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Active weather from the polar vortex and a north-south dynamic of precipitation across South America are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

VARIABLE MIDWEST WEATHER

An active pattern will bring several storm systems through the Midwest during the next 10 days with moderate to heavy precipitation at times, including during the Christmas weekend. Cold air from the Arctic may spill into the region at times next week behind these systems in the northwest. More widespread cold is forecast behind a larger system late next week or weekend.

SW PLAINS STILL BUILDING DROUGHT

The southwestern Plains has remained dry with declining conditions for wheat and increasing drought. Despite an active pattern with systems moving through, chances for precipitation through the end of the year are low, especially in the west that needs it most. The best chance would occur with a strong system late next week that will bring lower temperatures to the region.

NEAR CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION FOR PNW

An active upper-air pattern will produce periods of showers in the Pacific Northwest through the end of the year, helping to increase moisture for dormant wheat. Temperatures will go well-below normal next week.

ARCTIC CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

A storm will move through the Northern Plains Friday with limited precipitation but some snow bands on Saturday. Another will move through Sunday into Monday with more widespread showers likely. Cold air from the Arctic will spill into the region next week behind this system and the region will stay active as systems pass by to the south. The cold will stress livestock.

LONG-DURATION POLAR VORTEX EVENT FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Arctic cold conditions are building into the Canadian Prairies and look to continue into January as a lobe of the polar vortex settles in the region. Stress on livestock will increase due to the cold.

DRYNESS CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Isolated showers in southern Brazil earlier this week are not enough moisture for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans as temperatures will be in the 90s Fahrenheit and cause soil moisture to be used up quickly. With drier weather for at least the next week, conditions for corn and soybeans will continue to decline in the south. Conditions for reproductive to filling soybeans in central and northern areas continue to be very favorable and are setting up the safrinha (second crop) corn season with good soil moisture.

ARGENTINA DRYNESS AFFECTING EARLY PLANTED CROPS

Isolated showers in Argentina earlier this week were not enough for early-planted corn and soybeans that area getting nearer to or into reproduction. Most areas will be dry for at least the next week with chances for only isolated showers returning late next week. Late planting continues to be slow as producers try to wait for better precipitation and soil moisture, though prospects through most of January are not favorable.

SHOWERS RETURNING FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Some isolated showers will be possible in eastern Australia through the weekend, and possibly heavy at times in Queensland. Conditions are good for developing cotton and sorghum as well. Showers may get heavier toward the middle of next week, which would be more concerning for wheat and canola still to be harvested.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.