DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a deep trough in the West with a strong ridge building east of the Rockies. The trough will eventually move northeast into Canada later this week while another builds in behind it over the West only to move east this weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, a more active pattern will follow with another disturbance early next week. A more persistent trough should develop over the West late next week but will spread some energy eastward periodically through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop each trough and disturbance a little differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be variable through the period, but trend toward below normal in the Northwest and above normal in the Southeast by the end of next week. A system will exit off the East Coast Sunday and another will skirt the northern tier of the country with some light snow. Another storm system will move into the West late next week.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...89 AT SEBRING FL

LOW MON...8 BELOW ZERO AT GUNNISON CO

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT MONDAY... SAN FRANCISCO CA 2.97 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a deep trough in the West with a strong ridge building east of the Rockies. The trough will eventually move northeast into Canada later this week while another trough builds in behind it over the West only to move east this weekend. A more active pattern will follow with another disturbance early next week. A more persistent trough should develop over the West late next week but will spread some energy eastward periodically through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern but develop each trough and disturbance a little differently. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be variable through the period, but trend toward below normal in the Northwest and above normal in the Southeast by the end of next week. A system will exit off the East Coast Sunday and another will skirt the northern tier of the country with some light snow. Another storm system will move into the West late next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Above normal temperatures over the next couple of days will melt a good portion of the snow that fell last week, creating muddy conditions for livestock. A system in the middle of the week shows promise for more widespread snowfall, but we are unsure about the amounts. Strong winds will be a major hazard with the system, however. An additional couple of systems will move through the region over the following few days, but with overall light snowfall amounts.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT) A system will move through on Wednesday with strong winds, but there will be little shower activity with it outside of Nebraska. The front will remain over southern portions of the region through the weekend and there should be some showers that develop along it. Western areas are thirsty for rain, but there is only a small chance that this region sees any meaningful precipitation from the lingering front. Dryness is likely to continue build drought in the region instead.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A system brought a band of heavy snow across the north and strong thunderstorms to the south Friday and Saturday, with a couple of devastating tornadoes. The region continues to be active with near-record highs on Wednesday, then another system bringing scattered showers through. The front to the system will not clear the region and another system will develop more showers Friday into Saturday. An active upper-air pattern will continue to produce a couple more storm systems going into next week as well.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers developed over the weekend with some good precipitation in some of the valleys. A strong trough will continue to produce more widespread precipitation Tuesday and an active upper-air pattern will produce more showers throughout the next 10 days as well, helping to increase moisture for dormant wheat.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers have built back into southern areas, but that will be brief and the region will go dry again on Wednesday, lasting for about a week. The rainfall is briefly favorable for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans, but not enough. Central Brazil continues to see daily shower chances for the foreseeable future, benefiting developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated to scattered showers developed over the weekend and continue for the next couple of days before dryness settles back in. The showers have benefited developing corn and soybeans in areas that were hit, which includes the higher production areas around Cordoba. Showers may start to redevelop this coming weekend over southern areas, but that is not guaranteed.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through much of the continent over the weekend, favorable for winter wheat and grains. Drier weather is setting up for most areas this week, with sunshine favoring development where soil moisture is beneficial across the south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Mostly dry weather occurred this weekend, with more favorable conditions for winter wheat and canola harvest. There may be some isolated showers through the week, but most areas should find favorable conditions. Sunshine should help cotton and sorghum development as well.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures well above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, above normal Thursday and Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

East: Isolated showers Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday through Saturday. Temperatures well above normal through Thursday, above normal Friday and Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday through Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers southeast Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday, south Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures well above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday through Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday through Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday and Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday and Saturday.

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