DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...88 AT SEVERAL FLORIDA CITIES

LOW SUN...11 BELOW ZERO AT GUNNISON COUNTY CO

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT SUNDAY... EUGENE OR 1.37 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a deep trough developing off the West Coast with a strong ridge building east of the Rockies. The trough will eventually move through the West and then northeast into Canada later this week while another builds in behind it over the West only to move east this weekend. A more active pattern will follow with another disturbance early next week and another behind that one as well for mid-late next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern, but develop each trough and disturbance a little differently. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to below normal in the West and Central, and above normal in the East. Temperatures will be variable through the period as systems come and go. A system will move along a frontal boundary this weekend and another will do the same early next week, with showers steadily pushing southeast through the country. A third system may form in the middle of next week across the northern tier of the country while another moves into the West.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): A system brought snow to South Dakota last Friday but warmer weather moving in will melt a lot, if not all of the snow over the next couple of days, creating muddy conditions for livestock. A system in the middle of the week shows promise for more widespread snowfall, but we are unsure about the amounts. An additional couple of systems will move through the region over the following few days, but with overall light snowfall amounts.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT) A system brought snow to Nebraska on Friday, and a couple of areas in the far east saw thunderstorms developing, but most areas remained dry this weekend. A system will move through in the middle of the week with strong winds, but there will be little shower activity with it. The front will remain over southern portions of the region through the weekend and there could be some showers that develop along in the west, but models are very inconsistent with rainfall placement. Western areas are thirsty for rain, but there is only a small chance that this region sees any meaningful precipitation from the lingering front.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A system brought a band of heavy snow across the north and strong thunderstorms to the south Friday and Saturday, with a couple of devastating tornadoes. The region continues to be active with near-record highs on Wednesday, then another system will bring scattered showers through. The front to the system will not clear the region and another system will develop more showers Friday into Saturday. An active upper-air pattern will continue to produce a couple more storm systems going into next week as well.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers developed over the weekend with some good precipitation in some of the valleys. A strong trough will continue to produce more widespread precipitation early this week and an active upper-air pattern will produce more showers throughout the next 10 days as well, helping to increase moisture for dormant wheat.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers developed this weekend across the south, where moisture is lacking. After a couple of days of good precipitation chances early this week, southern areas will go dry again and it could be for an entire week. The rainfall is briefly favorable for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans, but not enough. Central Brazil continues to see daily shower chances for the foreseeable future, benefiting developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated to scattered showers developed over the weekend, benefiting developing corn and soybeans in areas that were hit, which includes the higher production areas around Cordoba. After a couple of days of shower chances, the region goes dry again. Showers may start to redevelop this coming weekend over southern areas, but that is not guaranteed.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through much of the continent over the weekend, favorable for winter wheat and grains. An upper-level system will continue showers across eastern areas for a couple of days, but drier weather is setting up for most areas this week, with sunshine favoring development where soil moisture is beneficial across the south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Mostly dry weather occurred this weekend, with more favorable conditions for winter wheat and canola harvest. There may be some isolated showers through the week, but most areas should find favorable conditions. Sunshine should help cotton and sorghum development as well.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Heavy snow north, scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, well above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, above normal Thursday and Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, well above normal Tuesday through Thursday, above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered snow north, isolated showers east. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers southeast Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday, south Thursday and Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, well above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, above normal Thursday and Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday through Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday through Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

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