DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a large trough in the West and another building up over Alaska. The western trough will move through the country this weekend. The stronger Alaska trough will dive deep off the West Coast this weekend and park there for several days next week. Meanwhile, a ridge will develop in the East with very warm temperatures next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the trough-west and ridge-east will continue for a couple days before the trough splits and weakens, then pushes through Canada and the northern U.S. late in the week and next weekend. Another trough may develop in the West next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement, though have some differences in how to develop a system next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be above normal for most of the country but below normal along the West Coast. Near-record temperatures are expected for the middle of the country next week for a couple of days before the western trough spreads near to below normal temperatures eastward by next weekend. Temperatures are still expected to remain very warm across the south and east. A system will move east of the Rockies in the middle of next week and produce some good showers, most likely across northern zones where it could still be moderate with a risk of heavy snow as well. A secondary system may form on the cold front of that system over the weekend with more showers east of the Rockies.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...93 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW THU...9 BELOW ZERO AT ESTCOURT STATION ME

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT THURSDAY... NEW ORLEANS LA 1.17 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a large trough in the West and another building up over Alaska. The western trough will move through the country this weekend. The stronger Alaska trough will dive deep off the West Coast this weekend and park there for several days next week before splitting and weakening but pushing through Canada and the northern U.S. late in the week and next weekend. Ahead of this trough, a strong ridge will develop east of the Rockies with higher temperatures. Another trough may develop in the West late next weekend into the following week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement though have some differences in how to develop a system next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be above normal for most of the country but below normal along the West Coast. Near-record temperatures are expected for the middle of the country next week for a couple of days before the western trough spreads near to below normal temperatures eastward by next weekend. Temperatures are still expected to remain higher across the south and east. A system will move east of the Rockies in the middle of next week and produce some good showers, most likely across northern zones where it could still be moderate with a risk of heavy snow as well. A secondary system may form on the cold front of that system over the weekend with more showers east of the Rockies.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): A system will bring some moderate to heavy snow to southern South Dakota on Friday, otherwise conditions should be dry until a system moves through in the middle of next week. Temperatures are trending above normal into the middle of next week, reducing stress for livestock.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT) Above normal temperatures will continue to plague winter wheat, especially in western areas where drought has grown steadily. Near-record temperatures are expected for a couple of days next week. A system that moves through on Friday will produce a band of moderate snow across Nebraska, but other areas are only likely to see spotty showers, unfavorable for winter wheat.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A system will move through Friday and Saturday with more widespread and moderate to heavy precipitation. Temperatures next week will be near-record high as a strong ridge moves overhead for a couple of days. That will be followed by another storm system that should knock temperatures back a bit.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A slow-moving system or series of systems will continue to bring scattered showers to the region through early next week, which will help to increase moisture for dormant wheat.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Central and northern areas will continue to see scattered showers for the next week. Southern areas continue to deal with dryness for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. Some showers may move into southern areas this weekend and may be enhanced early next week, with some timely rains for some of the crop. Conditions dry out again by the middle of next week and could last for some time.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers in the south are gradually spreading northward, with showers continuing in some fashion through early next week. Showers are spotty so there are areas that will be missed, but the several days of showers will be overall beneficial to areas that get hit. Dryness follows by the middle of next week and could last for some time as models are not finding systems to push through for the following week or two.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): The continent has been very active over the last few weeks and that continues through this weekend, proving good moisture for developing winter wheat and grains. Drier conditions are expected next week with good conditions for development across the south.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Although too late to directly help dormant winter wheat, scattered showers this week and next may make a contribution to building up soil moisture for spring growth.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers across eastern areas recently have continued to negatively impact harvest. Drier weather comes by Friday with improving conditions for wheat and canola harvest. Good soil moisture and sunny skies will be favorable for developing cotton and sorghum as well.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Friday and Saturday, heavy snow north. Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Monday, well above normal Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures well above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to above normal Friday through Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered snow north. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday, heavy snow north. Mostly dry Saturday through Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday and Monday, well above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to above normal Friday through Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Friday. Scattered showers Saturday through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday through Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

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