Commodities Market Impact Weather

A strong storm system misses southwestern Plains wheat and a mix of conditions in South America are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MIDWEST

A system is moving through the Midwest on Thursday with scattered showers over northern areas, but one will follow it Friday and Saturday with more widespread and moderate to heavy precipitation, including a band of heavy snow. Afterward, temperatures next week will be near-record high as a strong ridge moves overhead for a couple of days. That will be followed by another storm system that should knock temperatures back a bit.

LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEAT

Above-normal temperatures will continue to plague winter wheat in the Southern Plains, especially in western areas where drought has grown steadily. Near-record temperatures are expected for a couple of days next week. A system that moves through on Friday will produce a band of moderate snow across Nebraska, but other areas are only likely to see spotty showers, unfavorable for winter wheat.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A slow-moving system or series of systems will continue to bring scattered showers to the Pacific Northwest through early next week, which will help to increase moisture for dormant wheat and reduce drought.

BLACK SEA WHEAT IN POOR CONDITION

Although too late to directly help dormant winter wheat in the Black Sea region, scattered showers this week and next may make a contribution to building up soil moisture for spring growth.

SOME BRIEF SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Central and northern Brazil will continue to see scattered showers for the next week. Southern areas continue to deal with dryness for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. Some isolated showers may move into southern areas this weekend, but may be enhanced early next week, with some timely rains for some of the crop. Conditions dry out again by the middle of next week and could last for several days.

SPOTTY SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

In Argentina, showers in the south are gradually spreading northward the rest of the week, with showers continuing in some fashion through early next week. Showers are spotty so there are areas that will be missed, but the several days of showers will be overall beneficial to areas that get hit. Dryness follows by the middle of next week and could last for some time as models are not finding systems to push through for the following week or two.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA HEADED TOWARD DRIER TREND

Scattered showers across eastern Australia recently have continued to negatively impact harvest. Drier weather comes by Friday with improving conditions for wheat and canola harvest. Good soil moisture and sunny skies will be favorable for developing cotton and sorghum as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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