DTN Ag Weather Brief

Darren Miller, Staff Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...88 AT 12 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF FLORIDA CITY FL AND 17 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF OCHOPEE FL AND OCHOPEE FL

LOW TUE...22 BELOW ZERO AT BABBITT MN AND 2 MILES SOUTH OF BRIMSON MN AND 2 MILES EAST OF CELINA MN

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT TUESDAY... HONOLULU 8.40 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

A broad trough in the middle of the country will roughly stand in place for the next couple of days with disturbances riding along through it. A stronger storm should move through the western U.S. later this week, which then tracks through the rest of the central and eastern U.S. over the weekend. As the weekend storm exits eastern coastal areas early next week, another trough will dig into the West. Ahead of the trough in the West next week, a strong ridge develops in the central and eastern U.S.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement though have some minor differences in how to develop a couple of systems. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, an area of below normal temperatures lingers on Monday over the Southeast in the wake of the weekend storm system. Otherwise, almost the entire country will trend above to well above normal next week except for the West Coast. A system will move through the East with moderate precipitation as the weekend ends, but this will be followed by warm and dry conditions under the ridge. The warm East and the cool West next week sets the stage for a sharp storm system to develop midweek.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): A few spots saw some snow accumulation Tuesday. Some moderate snow could move over South Dakota late this week. Temperatures will bounce up and down this week but trend above normal next week and will have a chance to melt a portion or all of the snow.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT) Above normal temperatures will continue to plague winter wheat, especially in western areas where drought has grown steadily. A system at the end of the week and weekend is the best chance for producing some precipitation, but coverage and amounts look low.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A few spots saw some snow accumulation Tuesday. Another system will move through on Thursday with scattered showers but one coming up this next weekend should provide more widespread showers and again snow potential as well.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): There will be a couple of systems moving through this week and next that will bring scattered showers, but mostly in the form of snow as wheat goes dormant.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Central and northern areas will continue to see scattered showers through the week. Southern areas stay dry. With corn and soybeans entering reproduction, the dryness will be a concern if showers do not develop soon. However, there is not a good prospect for showers over the agricultural areas until possibly this upcoming weekend.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers in the south gradually progress northward the rest of the week, but activity will remain rather scattered to isolated and have difficulty meeting crops' needs. Developing corn and soybeans will have some issues as soil moisture reserves are used up.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Several storm systems will move through the country this week, continuing to produce good moisture, including Spain which has generally been missing out. Winter wheat continues to go dormant across the north. Next week looks relatively dry.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Although too late to directly help dormant winter wheat, scattered showers this week may make a contribution to building up soil moisture for spring growth.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers will develop across the eastern wheat belt for the next couple of days and delay areas that still need to harvest. The west has trended toward drier conditions, which look to set up elsewhere this coming weekend. Soil moisture continues to be favorable for developing cotton and sorghum.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered to isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered to isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday and Friday, near to below normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

East: East: Isolated showers Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday through Saturday. Dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday and Friday, near to below normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday and Wednesday, Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday through Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated light showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday through Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers east. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday, isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to above normal Friday through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered to isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday, mostly north for the rest of the week but becoming more widespread Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to slightly above normal through Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers west Wednesday-Thursday, isolated to scattered showers Friday through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal northeast to below normal southwest Thursday and Friday, near normal northeast to below normal southwest Saturday and Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday through Sunday. Temperatures above normal northeast to below normal southwest Wednesday and Thursday, below normal Friday, near normal Saturday, below normal Sunday.

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