DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. This alignment will continue into next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, through ridge-west and trough-east pattern will continue into next week, but with disturbances moving between the two which will cause some fluctuations, especially with a system in the middle of next week that should create a more progressive pattern.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but have differences on how and when to develop systems moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to below normal in the East and above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will generally stay in this pattern through Tuesday before temperatures fluctuate more as the pattern turns progressive. A strong system will move through the country in the middle of next week with scattered showers, including a band of snow, and strong winds. Another system will move through the West and into the Plains at the end of next week.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...91 AT MODESTO CITY CA AND PALM SPRINGS CA

LOW TUE...1 BELOW ZERO AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT TUESDAY...JUNEAU AK 0.23 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. This alignment will continue into next week, but with disturbances moving between the two which will cause some fluctuations, especially with a system early to mid-next week that should create a more progressive pattern to end the week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but have differences on how and when to develop systems moving through. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures Monday will be near to below normal in the East and above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will generally stay in this pattern through Tuesday before temperatures fluctuate more as the pattern turns progressive. A strong system will move through the country in the middle of next week with scattered showers, including a band of snow, and strong winds. Another system will move through the West and into the Plains at the end of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Only light precipitation is expected for the next week, though several systems will move through the region. Above normal temperatures will be in place through early next week, reducing stress for livestock.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Some isolated showers will be possible in southeastern areas Friday night into Saturday, otherwise dry weather is expected for the next week. The dryness continues to build drought and reduce conditions for winter wheat.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Several systems will move through over the course of the next week, bringing chances for showers and snow mostly across the north and east. Amounts look to be light with each system, except for one toward the middle of next week, which could be more moderate.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A couple of systems will move through this week, but only light precipitation is anticipated as heavier precipitation should stay north in British Columbia. The best chance for showers comes next Monday. Temperatures should remain mostly above normal and drought stress will continue for winter wheat.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Outside of a few showers possibly this weekend, southern areas will be dry, which will be unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans. Central states continue to have favorable weather for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry weather continues Wednesday, but another system will move through late this week and weekend with more scattered showers. Southern and western areas stand the best chance to see showers with this system. Dry weather follows this system through next week. The overall drier pattern will deplete soil moisture that has built up during the month of November, increasing stress for developing corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): The continent will continue to see active weather for the next week, bringing good showers for winter wheat establishment where it has not gone dormant in the north and east, and where it is developing across the south.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers have gone through the region over the last several days, but it is mostly too late as wheat is going dormant for the winter. Soils can still soak up moisture since they are not frozen yet, so any precipitation will still be beneficial, just not until the spring.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers continued across eastern areas this weekend and early this week, continuing to cause concern for winter wheat and canola harvest and quality. Showers are becoming more isolated but will stick around through the weekend and possible next week as well.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers overnight. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers north Thursday night. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers southeast Friday night-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

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