DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. This alignment will continue through the week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, through ridge-west and trough-east pattern will continue over the next 10 days, but with disturbances moving between the two which will cause some fluctuations, especially with a system early-mid next week that should create a more progressive pattern.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but have differences on how and when to develop systems moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to below normal in the East and above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will generally stay in this pattern through the period. A couple of larger systems will move across the country this weekend and then early-mid next week as well. Both storms could have widespread impacts for temperatures, precipitation and type, and strong winds.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...89 AT CHINO CA, WOODLAND HILLS CA, AND PALA CA

LOW MON...2 AT CLAYTON LAKE ME AND AVERILL VT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT MONDAY...PORTLAND OR 0.20 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. This alignment will continue over the next 10 days, but with disturbances moving between the two, which will cause some fluctuations, especially with a system early-mid next week that should create a more progressive pattern.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but have differences on how and when to develop systems moving through. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to below normal in the East and above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will generally stay in this pattern through the period. A couple of larger systems will move across the country this weekend and then early to mid-next week as well. Both storms could have widespread impacts for temperatures, precipitation and type, and strong winds.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Only light precipitation is expected for the next week, though several systems will move through the region. Above normal temperatures will be in place for the next week as well, reducing stress for livestock.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): An upper-level low brought scattered showers to Texas this weekend, but missed a good portion of the drier areas in the west. No significant precipitation is expected for the week, continuing to build drought and reduce conditions for winter wheat.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Several weak systems will move through over the course of the next week, bringing chances for showers and snow across the north and east. Amounts look to be light with each system, however.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Heavy rain went through some of the mountain areas in the north, but most of the valleys stayed dry this weekend. A couple of systems will move through this week, but only light precipitation is anticipated as heavier precipitation should stay north in British Columbia. The best chance for showers comes next Monday. Temperatures should remain mostly above normal and drought stress will continue for winter wheat.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell across most areas this weekend as a front moved through southern states. This front cleared southern areas and will be followed by mostly dry weather for the next week, which will be unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans. Central states continue to have favorable weather.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought scattered showers to most areas over the weekend, being moderate to heavy in some of the higher production areas. Dry weather is expected for most of the country this week but another system will move through late this week and weekend with more scattered showers. Southern and western areas stand the best chance to see showers with this system. Dry weather follows this as well. The overall drier pattern will deplete soil moisture that has built up during the month of November, increasing stress for developing corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers fell across a good portion of the continent this weekend as a system moved out and was replaced by another. The continent will continue to see active weather, bringing good showers for winter wheat establishment where it has not gone dormant in the north and east, and where it is developing across the south.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Some showers went through over the weekend and will continue early this week as a system moves through, but it is mostly too late as wheat is going dormant for the winter. Soils can still soak up moisture since they are not frozen yet, so any precipitation will still be beneficial, just not until the spring.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers continued across eastern areas this weekend, continuing to cause concern for winter wheat and canola harvest and quality. Showers will stick around these areas through the week, but will be more isolated than we have seen in November.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers north and east. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Tuesday night. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

East: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday.

Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal west and near to below normal east Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers east Friday night-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday.

Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday.

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