Commodities Market Impact Weather

Stable, But Active US Pattern

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A stable but active pattern in the United States, dryness in Argentina and southern Brazil, and continued showers in eastern Australia are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

Scattered showers moved through the Midwest during the weekend, but mostly fell across Michigan and Ohio, where there is still a little bit of harvest to complete. A couple of weak systems will move through during the course of the week, bringing increasing chances for snow for eastern areas. Amounts still look to be light, however.

DROUGHT INCREASING FOR SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS

An upper-level low brought scattered showers to Texas this weekend, but missed a good portion of the drier areas in the west. No significant precipitation is expected for the week, continuing to build drought and reduce conditions for winter wheat.

DRIER IN THE DELTA

An upper-level system moved through southern areas of the Delta with some isolated showers this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Dryness this week should help remaining harvest areas.

GOOD HARVEST WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEAST

Good harvest conditions are expected to continue in the Southeast for the next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Heavy rain went through some of the mountain areas in the Pacific Northwest, but most of the valleys stayed dry this weekend. A couple of systems will move through this week, but only light precipitation is anticipated. Temperatures should remain mostly above normal and drought stress will continue for winter wheat.

SHOWERS TOO LATE FOR BLACK SEA WHEAT

Some showers went through the Black Sea region during the weekend and there will be more early this week as a system moves through. But it is mostly too late as wheat is going dormant for the winter. Soils can still soak up moisture since they are not frozen yet, so any precipitation will still be beneficial, but not until the spring.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL DRYNESS CONCERNS

Scattered showers fell across most areas of Brazil this weekend as a front moved through southern states. This front will clear southern areas on Tuesday and will be followed by mostly dry weather for the next week, which will be unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans. Central states continue to have favorable weather.

ARGENTINA DRY MOST OF THE WEEK

A system brought scattered showers to most of Argentina during the weekend, being moderate to heavy in some of the higher production areas. Dry weather is expected for most of the country this week, but another system will move through late this week and weekend with more scattered showers. Southern and western areas stand the best chance to see showers with this system. Dry weather follows this as well. The overall drier pattern will deplete soil moisture that has built up during November, increasing stress for developing corn and soybeans.

SHOWERS SLOW EASTERN AUSTRALIA HARVEST

Scattered showers continued across eastern Australia this weekend, continuing to cause concern for winter wheat and canola harvest and quality. Showers will stick around these areas through the week, but will be more isolated than we have seen in November.

**

Get a full rundown on the 2022 outlook for weather affecting U.S. and international crop areas during the DTN Ag Summit, Dec. 5-7, in Chicago. Visit www.dtn.com/agsummit for more details about the summit and to register.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick