DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. This alignment will continue through the week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

In the 6- to 10-day period, we will start to see this pattern break down a bit this weekend and into next week. The ridge will continue to have an influence in the Southwest, however.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but have differences on how and when to develop systems moving through. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to below normal in the East and above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will generally stay in this pattern through the period, but we could see temperatures fall in the Pacific Northwest and Plains at the end of the period. A couple of larger systems will move across the country this weekend and then early to mid-next week as well. Both storms could have widespread impacts for temperatures, precipitation and type, and strong winds.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...90 AT WOODLAND HILLS CA

LOW SUN...2 BELOW ZERO AT MT WASHINGTON NH AND SARANAC LAKE NY

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT SUNDAY...LAKE CHARLES LA 0.66 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. This alignment will continue through the week, but we will start to see this pattern break down a bit this weekend and into next week. The ridge will continue to have an influence in the Southwest, however.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but have differences on how and when to develop systems moving through. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to below normal in the East and above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will generally stay in this pattern through the period, but we could see temperatures fall in the Pacific Northwest and Plains at the end of the period. A couple of larger systems will move across the country this weekend and then early to mid-next week as well. Both storms could have widespread impacts for temperatures, precipitation and type, and strong winds.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): No significant precipitation fell this weekend and warm temperatures reduced stress on livestock. Above normal temperatures will be in place for the next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): An upper-level low brought scattered showers to Texas this weekend, but missed a good portion of the drier areas in the west. No significant precipitation is expected for the week, continuing to build drought and reduce conditions for winter wheat.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through the region over the weekend, but mostly fell across Michigan and Ohio, where there is still a little bit of harvest to complete. A couple of weak systems will move through over the course of the week, bringing increasing chances for snow for eastern areas. Amounts still look to be light, however.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): An upper-level system moved through southern areas with some isolated showers this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Dryness this week should help remaining harvest areas.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Good harvest conditions are expected to continue for the next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Heavy rain went through some of the mountain areas in the north, but most of the valleys stayed dry this weekend. A couple of systems will move through this week, but only light precipitation is anticipated. Temperatures should remain mostly above normal and drought stress will continue for winter wheat.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell across most areas this weekend as a front moved through southern states. This front will clear southern areas on Tuesday and will be followed by mostly dry weather for the next week, which will be unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans. Central states continue to have favorable weather.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought scattered showers to most areas over the weekend, being moderate to heavy in some of the higher production areas. Dry weather is expected for most of the country this week but another system will move through late this week and weekend with more scattered showers. Southern and western areas stand the best chance to see showers with this system. Dry weather follows this as well. The overall drier pattern will deplete soil moisture that has built up during the month of November, increasing stress for developing corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers fell across a good portion of the continent this weekend as a system moved out and was replaced by another. The continent will continue to see active weather, bringing good showers for winter wheat establishment where it has not gone dormant in the north and east, and where it is developing across the south.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Some showers went through over the weekend and there will be more early this week as a system moves through, but it is mostly too late as wheat is going dormant for the winter. Soils can still soak up moisture since they are not frozen yet, so any precipitation will still be beneficial, just not until the spring.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers continued across eastern areas this weekend, continuing to cause concern for winter wheat and canola harvest and quality. Showers will stick around these areas through the week, but will be more isolated than we have seen in November.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday.

Temperatures above normal through Friday.

East: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers in Texas. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday.

Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday.

Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

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