DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...84 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW TUE...1 BELOW ZERO AT ALAMOSA CO AND BODIE CA

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT TUESDAY...PORTLAND OR 0.52 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the East and a trough in Rockies. The trough will dig into the East late this week and a ridge will develop over the West. This alignment will continue into next week, but a couple of weak systems will ride over the ridge and reinforce the trough, keeping the overall pattern active. The pattern will break down and become more progressive again by the end of next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be below normal in the East and above normal elsewhere. This general pattern will continue into next week with rising temperatures in the East. A weak system may move through the northern tier of the country next week, but with limited or no precipitation. A system will move into the Pacific Northwest in the middle of next week that will start the active pattern back up again going into the back-half of the week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): The pattern remains active, but precipitation will be very limited with each front moving through. Temperatures will be on an overall rising trend later this week that should last through most of next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Dry conditions recently have increased drought in the region, a concern for winter wheat, especially in the west. A system will develop along a front on Wednesday and will bring some shower activity to the region into Thursday but will be mostly light and across the southeast. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will increase drought in the region.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system will move through the region on Thursday with scattered showers again for eastern areas. Some more showers are possible this weekend as well. Showers are continuing to cause delays for the remaining harvest and fieldwork.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): A front will bring some showers on Thursday. Any rainfall will help winter wheat establishment but could slow the remaining harvest.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): A front will move through on Friday with possible showers, but mostly favorable harvest conditions are expected to continue.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A system that moved through earlier this week brought some scattered showers, but mostly to the higher elevations. Some more showers may be possible late in the week as well. Winter wheat continues to deal with drought before going dormant, but time is running out before it does.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front comes through with scattered showers to southern areas on Thursday and Friday, benefiting corn and soybean development. But the drier pattern across the south is concerning as it does not look to relax and get wetter anytime soon. Daily scattered showers continue to promote good growing conditions in the central states.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will bring widespread showers Wednesday and Thursday. Another weak front could bring a few showers this weekend, but the overall drier pattern is concerning as only periodic showers along fronts will break it up over the next two weeks.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system spinning around Spain will produce good moisture for the next day or two and then move across southern areas of the continent with good showers for wheat establishment. Another system will move into western areas late this week and weekend with good showers as well. With forecast showers, conditions for wheat looks to be good for most areas, but northern areas are going dormant.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Periods of showers went through the region early this week. Most areas saw only light rain and dryness continues to be a large concern for winter wheat prior to dormancy, which is beginning to occur. Some better showers could move through this weekend into next week but may be too late to have much of an impact.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): A system is slowly moving through eastern areas with moderate to heavy rainfall for the next few days. However, after showers move through Thursday and Friday, there could be a somewhat extended period of dryness for most areas before the next system moves in. There is uncertainty with this, however.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Wednesday, mostly south. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday and Friday, near to above normal Saturday and Sunday.

East: Scattered showers Wednesday night and Thursday. Lake-effect snow Friday. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to below normal Friday through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near to above normal west and near to below normal east Monday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday and Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday, mostly southeast. Mostly dry Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday and Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday through Friday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday and Thursday, below normal Friday, near normal Saturday and Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday through Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday and Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

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