Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active pattern through the United States and a return to more La Nina-type conditions for Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

ACTIVE WEATHER FOR EASTERN MIDWEST

A front continues to move through the eastern portions of the Midwest with showers ending over eastern areas early Thursday. Another storm system moving through this weekend will bring scattered showers mostly to eastern areas and another system is possible in the middle of next week. Any showers will delay the remaining harvest and fieldwork yet to be done.

SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS UNFAVORABLY DRY

Dry conditions in the Southern Plains during the last week have helped the remaining harvest, but continues to be a concern for winter wheat, especially in the west where drought is increasing. A system will move through during the weekend but is expected to be mostly dry. A system will try to develop in the middle of next week, but models are having trouble deciding if it will bring any precipitation.

BRIEF SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

A front brought some showers to the Delta Wednesday night into Thursday and another front could bring more showers this weekend. Any rainfall will help winter wheat establishment, but could slow the remaining harvest.

SOUTHEAST SEEING GOOD HARVEST WEATHER

A front will move through the Southeast on Thursday but is likely to be dry. Another front looks to be dry when it comes through on Monday as well. Mostly favorable harvest conditions are expected to continue through most of next week.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A system will move through the Pacific Northwest with scattered showers Thursday and Friday, with impacts mostly for the mountains with lighter showers in the valleys. Winter wheat continues to deal with drought before going dormant.

DRYNESS CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR BLACK SEA WHEAT

A system will move through with a better chance for scattered showers for the Black Sea region Friday through the weekend, but amounts are forecast to be light. Time is getting very short for showers to have an impact before dormancy, which typically arrives later this month.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL TRENDING DRIER

Scattered showers continue over central Brazil, favoring corn and soybean development. A front is slowly moving through southern areas with needed rainfall through Friday. Dryness after this front comes through should last through the weekend, however, and dryness is starting to take over southern states, typical of La Nina. Another front will quickly move through around the middle of next week with scattered showers. Central areas continue to see daily showers that will benefit corn and soybean development.

DRIER LA NINA PATTERN FOR ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina early this week with scattered showers, putting a cap on two weeks of good rainfall across the country. Dryness will follow behind it through the weekend, but there should be another system moving through early next week, maintaining timely showers. If the dry period lasts too long, we could see more stress developing.

WET SOILS IMPACTING HARVEST IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Wet soils in Australia will take some time to drain and allow harvest to increase for wheat and canola. Another system moving through late this week and weekend and another will move through around the middle of next week. The rains will benefit summer crops while causing further delays for harvest.

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Get a full rundown on the 2022 outlook for weather affecting U.S. and international crop areas during the DTN Ag Summit, Dec. 5-7, in Chicago. Visit www.dtn.com/agsummit for more details about the summit and to register. Register before Nov. 26 for the early bird rate.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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