DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...95 AT WINTERHAVEN CA

LOW THU...9 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM THURSDAY...SEATTLE WA 1.04 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the East, a ridge in central Canada into the Southwest, and a complex trough in the North Pacific. The ridge will build and move into the middle of the country this weekend into early next week. A large piece of the Pacific trough is forecast to move into the West by the middle of next week and then eventually through the rest of the country by the end of next week. A ridge will develop behind it in the West as the trough moves east.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper-level pattern but are inconsistent on how to develop a system in the middle of the country mid-late next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to above normal across most of the country with temperatures falling in the West. Near to below normal temperatures are likely to move into the Plains and then into the East behind a system that moves through during the week. Rising temperatures will follow behind it in the West by next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN): Temperatures will continue to be mild into next week. A system will likely move through during the middle of next week, but there is uncertainty in how this will develop. Seemingly everything is on the table in terms of precipitation and temperatures, but the most likely scenario is for moderate precipitation to move through with falling temperatures and a turn to snow, which could affect the remaining corn harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought at least some showers to the region over the last few days, but dryness continues to be a concern for winter wheat establishment, especially in the southwest. Dryness and above normal temperatures over the next several days will be detrimental. A system in the middle of next week could bring some showers, but mostly to eastern areas.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Cold air in the region will slow growth on winter wheat, but the region will go through a warming trend through the weekend and harvest weather continues to look good going into next week. A weak system will bring some showers across the region early next week and another system will likely move through during the middle and end of next week, but there is uncertainty in how this will develop. Moderate precipitation could cause more delays in the harvest should it occur.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers that moved through this week should not have impacted harvest very much. Cooler weather should slow growth on winter wheat through the weekend before temperatures rise. A system moving through mid-late next week could provide good rainfall for wheat but impede harvest again.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Scattered showers will move through over the next couple of days and could affect cotton harvest. Colder weather will follow the system going into next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Drought remains a large concern for the region's winter wheat. A trough off the coast will bring in a few waves of showers over the next week, which may be helpful for a few areas where moisture piles up a bit. But more moisture is needed throughout the rest of the fall and winter.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Daily scattered showers will continue across central areas for the next week, while a couple of rounds of showers are expected across southern areas as well. Dryness over Rio Grande do Sul is expected next week as the only area with detrimental conditions for the foreseeable future. The dryness will help with the remaining wheat harvest, however.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moving through with scattered showers will clear the country on Saturday. Recent rainfall has favored corn and soybean planting as well as immature winter wheat in the short term. Drier conditions are expected over the weekend, but some isolated showers may pop back up next week, especially over western areas. A drier pattern is returning but the isolated showers will cut into the dryness a bit.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers over the continent this week have been beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment but have caused some harvest delays. A couple of fronts will bring additional showers to areas next week, but drier weather is expected on the whole. Overall, conditions remain favorable for winter wheat establishment in the north and planting and early growth in the south.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A couple of weak systems will bring some showers mostly to Ukraine for the next week, while Russia stays fairly dry. There continues to be dryness concerns for winter wheat establishment in these drier areas and time is running out for beneficial moisture before dormancy.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): A system is bringing widespread showers to the wheat belt this week, benefiting immature wheat and canola, and developing cotton and sorghum. But showers are also causing harvest delays. A couple more fronts will bring isolated to scattered showers to the wheat belt through next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday through Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south Friday and Saturday, above normal Sunday through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday through Friday, snow possible. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday and Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal northwest and below normal southeast.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal northwest and below normal southeast Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to below normal Friday through Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday, north Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers west Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers west Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday.

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