DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...94 AT THERMAL CA, OCTOTILLO WELLS CA, AND MECCA CA

LOW WED...11 AT NEKOOSA WI

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM WEDNESDAY...AUSTIN TX 2.00 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough across the East, a ridge in western Canada building into the West, and a complex trough in the North Pacific. The ridge will build and move into the middle of the country this weekend into early next week. A large piece of the Pacific trough is forecast to move into the West by the middle of next week and then eventually through the rest of the country by the end of next week. A ridge will develop behind it in the West as the trough moves east.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but differ on how to develop the system in the middle to end of next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be near to above normal across most of the country with temperatures falling in the West. Near to below normal temperatures are likely to move into the Plains behind a system that moves through during the week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the weekend. A system will likely move through during the middle of next week, but there is uncertainty in how this will develop. Seemingly everything is on the table in terms of precipitation and temperatures, but the most likely scenario is for moderate precipitation to move through with falling temperatures and a turn to snow, which could affect the remaining corn harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought at least some showers to the region over the last few days, but dryness continues to be a concern for winter wheat establishment. Dryness and above normal temperatures over the next several days will be detrimental. A system in the middle of next week could bring some showers, but mostly to eastern areas.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Cold air settling in will slow soil drainage with some frosts and freezes through the rest of the week. The cold will also slow growth on winter wheat. Temperatures will rise Friday through the weekend. A system will likely move through during the middle of next week, but there is uncertainty in how this will develop. Moderate precipitation could cause more delays in the harvest should it occur.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers that moved through this week should not have impacted harvest very much. Cooler weather should slow growth on winter wheat through the weekend before temperatures rise.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Scattered showers will move through over the next couple of days and could affect cotton harvest. Colder temperatures will follow the system going into next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Drought remains a large concern for the region's winter wheat. A trough off the coast will bring in a few waves of showers over the next week, which may be helpful for a few areas where moisture piles up a bit. But more moisture is needed throughout the rest of the fall and winter.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Daily scattered showers will continue across central areas for the next week, while a couple of rounds of showers are expected across southern areas as well. Overall, conditions are favorable for soybean and full-season corn planting and early growth. Some dry periods will favor winter wheat harvest over the south as well.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move through with scattered showers for the next couple of days. That will favor corn and soybean planting as well as immature winter wheat. Drier conditions are expected over the weekend, but some isolated showers may pop back up next week, especially over western areas.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers will continue across the bulk of the continent over the next couple of days. A couple of fronts will bring additional showers to many areas next week. Overall, conditions remain favorable for winter wheat establishment in the north and planting and early growth in the south. Showers are putting pressure on fall harvest and fieldwork, however.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A couple of weak systems will bring some showers mostly to Ukraine for the next week, while Russia stays fairly dry. There continues to be dryness concerns for winter wheat establishment in these drier areas and time is running out for beneficial moisture before dormancy.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): A system is bringing widespread showers to the wheat belt this week, benefiting immature wheat and canola, and developing cotton and sorghum. But showers are also causing harvest delays. A couple more fronts will bring isolated to scattered showers to the wheat belt through next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, above normal north and near to below normal south Friday, above normal Saturday through Monday.

East: Isolated showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Monday. Temperatures below normal Thursday, near to above normal north and below normal south Friday and Saturday, above normal Sunday and Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday through Friday, snow possible. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday through Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal northwest and below normal southeast Thursday and Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday and Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday through Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday, north Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday and Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday and Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday and Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

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